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Article >  Journal of Tropical Meteorology  > 1998 >  4(2): 215-219

AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK

  • Beijing Aeronautical Meteorological Institute, Beijing 100085

  • Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044

  • Beijing Institute of Meteorology, Beijing 100081

Funding:

  • Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that are widely used and the results show that there has been significant increase in the capability of forecasting with the improvement by the consensus procedure.
  • [1] Chen Lianshou, Ding Yihui, 1979. General Theory of West Pacific Typhoons (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Press, 388-391
    [2] Cao Hongxing, Wei Fengying, 1989. Principles and application of the lagged-average forecast (in Chinese Meteor. Sci. & Tech.,1:32-36.
    [3] Dalcher A, Kalnay E, Hoffman R N, 1988. Medium range lagged-average forecast. Mon. Wea. Rev, 116: 402-416.
    [4] Elsberry R L. Dobos P H. Bacon A B, 1991-Lagged-average predictions of tropical cyclone tracks, Mon.Wea.Rev,119: 1031-1039
    [5] Holstein staid Von C·A·S. 1971. An experiment in probabilistic weather forecasting. J : Appl Meteor.10:635-645
    [6] Wand.Jizhi, Neumann, 1984. A Markov-type analogue model for forecasting the motion of northwestern Pacitic typhoons (in Chinese). Acta Sci. Sin.(B series), 5: 467-475.
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Li Jianyun, Ding Yuguo, Shi Jiu'en. AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1998, 4(2): 215-219.
Li Jianyun, Ding Yuguo, Shi Jiu'en. AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1998, 4(2): 215-219.
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    Manuscript received: 24 October 1994
    Manuscript revised: 24 May 1995
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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    AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK

    • Beijing Aeronautical Meteorological Institute, Beijing 100085
    • Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044
    • Beijing Institute of Meteorology, Beijing 100081
    • Received Date: 1994-10-24
    • Rev Recd Date: 1995-05-24

    Abstract: Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that are widely used and the results show that there has been significant increase in the capability of forecasting with the improvement by the consensus procedure.

    Li Jianyun, Ding Yuguo, Shi Jiu'en. AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1998, 4(2): 215-219.
    Citation: Li Jianyun, Ding Yuguo, Shi Jiu'en. AN EXPERIMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1998, 4(2): 215-219.
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