1998 Vol. 4, No. 2
1998, 4(2): 113-121.
Abstract:
The data analyses indicated that the occurrence of EL Nino event is closely related to intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the tropical atmosphere: The intraseasonal oscillation is very strong in tile tropics (particularly over the equatorial western Pacific) prior to the occurrence of El Nino; But the ISO is evidently reduced and the quasistationary system is enhanced after the outbreak of El Nino. A simple air-sea coupled model study shows that the periodical self-excited oscillation can be produced in the air-sea-coupled system, but the pattern is different from the observed ENSO mode. When there is external (atmospheric) forcing with interannual time scale, a coupled mode, which looks like the ENSO mode, will be excited in the air-sea system. Synthesizing the results in data analyses and the theoretical investigation. the mechanism of ISO in the tropical atmosphere exciting the El Nino event can be suggested : The interannual anomalies (variations) of the tropical ISO play an important role in the exciting El Nino event through the air-sea interaction.
The data analyses indicated that the occurrence of EL Nino event is closely related to intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the tropical atmosphere: The intraseasonal oscillation is very strong in tile tropics (particularly over the equatorial western Pacific) prior to the occurrence of El Nino; But the ISO is evidently reduced and the quasistationary system is enhanced after the outbreak of El Nino. A simple air-sea coupled model study shows that the periodical self-excited oscillation can be produced in the air-sea-coupled system, but the pattern is different from the observed ENSO mode. When there is external (atmospheric) forcing with interannual time scale, a coupled mode, which looks like the ENSO mode, will be excited in the air-sea system. Synthesizing the results in data analyses and the theoretical investigation. the mechanism of ISO in the tropical atmosphere exciting the El Nino event can be suggested : The interannual anomalies (variations) of the tropical ISO play an important role in the exciting El Nino event through the air-sea interaction.
1998, 4(2): 122-130.
Abstract:
Using a low-order spectral model derived from the equatorial equilibrium model, possible physical mechanisms are interpreted by the theory of multiple equilibria states for the active and break phases of the South Asian Monsoon, with consideration of the effects of heating by cumulus heating and cooling by radiation. The result shows that the South Asian Monsoon is active when the cumulus convection intensifies (or the radiation cooling weakens). the monsoon breaks when the convection weakens (or the cooling intensifies). It is consistent with the hypothesis of cloud-radiation by Krishnamurti et al.
Using a low-order spectral model derived from the equatorial equilibrium model, possible physical mechanisms are interpreted by the theory of multiple equilibria states for the active and break phases of the South Asian Monsoon, with consideration of the effects of heating by cumulus heating and cooling by radiation. The result shows that the South Asian Monsoon is active when the cumulus convection intensifies (or the radiation cooling weakens). the monsoon breaks when the convection weakens (or the cooling intensifies). It is consistent with the hypothesis of cloud-radiation by Krishnamurti et al.
1998, 4(2): 131-140.
Abstract:
Using the barotropic volticity equation that contains forcing from diabatic heating with appropriate parameterization. a number of numerical experiments are conducted for the tropical cyclone that is initially symmetric The result shows that the diabatic heating has important effects on the asymmetric structure in addition to the roll of the β term and nonlinear advection term in its formation. It again confirms the conclusion that the diabatic heating is a possible mechanism responsible for such structures in the tropical cyclone.
Using the barotropic volticity equation that contains forcing from diabatic heating with appropriate parameterization. a number of numerical experiments are conducted for the tropical cyclone that is initially symmetric The result shows that the diabatic heating has important effects on the asymmetric structure in addition to the roll of the β term and nonlinear advection term in its formation. It again confirms the conclusion that the diabatic heating is a possible mechanism responsible for such structures in the tropical cyclone.
1998, 4(2): 141-147.
Abstract:
Using 1975-1993 (with 1978 missing) data of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), characteristics of seasonal variation of low-frequency oscillations in the South China Sea and its relation to the establishment and activity of the summer monsoon there are studied. As is shown in the result, the low-frequency oscillation in the South China Sea is much stronger in the period of summer monsoon than in that of winter monsoon and the summer monsoon there usually begins to set up in a negative phase of the first significant low-frequency oscillation for the early summer. The study also reveals that the circulation for the low-frequency oscillation during the summer monsoon in the Sea is embodied as north-south fluctuations of the ITCZ and east-west shifts of western ridge point of the West Pacific subtropical high, suggesting close correlation between the low-frequency oscillation and the active and break (decay) of the South China Sea monsoon. In the meantime. the work illustrates how the low-frequency oscillation in the South China Sea are superimposed with the seasonal variation of the general circulation. so that the summer inonsoon covers the establishment of the Ist, intensification of the 2nd and 3rd the low-frequency oscillations and decay of the 4th oscillation.
Using 1975-1993 (with 1978 missing) data of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), characteristics of seasonal variation of low-frequency oscillations in the South China Sea and its relation to the establishment and activity of the summer monsoon there are studied. As is shown in the result, the low-frequency oscillation in the South China Sea is much stronger in the period of summer monsoon than in that of winter monsoon and the summer monsoon there usually begins to set up in a negative phase of the first significant low-frequency oscillation for the early summer. The study also reveals that the circulation for the low-frequency oscillation during the summer monsoon in the Sea is embodied as north-south fluctuations of the ITCZ and east-west shifts of western ridge point of the West Pacific subtropical high, suggesting close correlation between the low-frequency oscillation and the active and break (decay) of the South China Sea monsoon. In the meantime. the work illustrates how the low-frequency oscillation in the South China Sea are superimposed with the seasonal variation of the general circulation. so that the summer inonsoon covers the establishment of the Ist, intensification of the 2nd and 3rd the low-frequency oscillations and decay of the 4th oscillation.
1998, 4(2): 148-154.
Abstract:
The medium-range change of the subtropical high of June 1979 and its influences of the heating sources over Tibet Plateau are studied by using a global circulation spectrum-model. The analyses of the simulation results show that the heating sources over Tibet Plateau play an important role in the process of frontogenesis. the intensity of frontal zone and the upper-tropospheric westerly jet associated with it. When there are heating sources over Tibet Plateau. both the frontal zone and westerly jet are stronger. There are very important mutual relations between the sensible heating and latent heating. After the sensible heating and latent heating are isolated.it departs much from reality that the significance of them are studied
The medium-range change of the subtropical high of June 1979 and its influences of the heating sources over Tibet Plateau are studied by using a global circulation spectrum-model. The analyses of the simulation results show that the heating sources over Tibet Plateau play an important role in the process of frontogenesis. the intensity of frontal zone and the upper-tropospheric westerly jet associated with it. When there are heating sources over Tibet Plateau. both the frontal zone and westerly jet are stronger. There are very important mutual relations between the sensible heating and latent heating. After the sensible heating and latent heating are isolated.it departs much from reality that the significance of them are studied
1998, 4(2): 155-165.
Abstract:
(1) Assuming that there is a zero-divergent layer in mid-troposphere, a diabatic and quasi-geostrophic equation set (bearing the format of that for barotropic vorticity) is derived by vertical integration of the thermodynamics equation and approximate description of anomalous tropospheric heating field in a simultaneous equation.(2) Discussing the spectral mean and group velocities, it is proved that the enclosed centers of the climatically mean geopotential field are no other than the atmospheric low-frequency oscillators ill the mid-and higher-latitudes. They have reversed variation of phase on two sides, with the energy supplied by the positive feedback of condensation by CISK or the sensible heat of sea temperature. (3) A formula is derived for low-frequency teleconnecting rays, which are shown to cross the streamlines southward in the northerly or northward in the southerly and to change direction of movement at the bottom of troughs or the top of ridges. Comparing to the great circle argument. the theoretic results above are more reasonable in explaining the observed low-frequency teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere.
(1) Assuming that there is a zero-divergent layer in mid-troposphere, a diabatic and quasi-geostrophic equation set (bearing the format of that for barotropic vorticity) is derived by vertical integration of the thermodynamics equation and approximate description of anomalous tropospheric heating field in a simultaneous equation.(2) Discussing the spectral mean and group velocities, it is proved that the enclosed centers of the climatically mean geopotential field are no other than the atmospheric low-frequency oscillators ill the mid-and higher-latitudes. They have reversed variation of phase on two sides, with the energy supplied by the positive feedback of condensation by CISK or the sensible heat of sea temperature. (3) A formula is derived for low-frequency teleconnecting rays, which are shown to cross the streamlines southward in the northerly or northward in the southerly and to change direction of movement at the bottom of troughs or the top of ridges. Comparing to the great circle argument. the theoretic results above are more reasonable in explaining the observed low-frequency teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere.
1998, 4(2): 166-171.
Abstract:
Based on forecasting criteria of tropical cyclone categories of left and right turning and stable track and fuzzy mathematical principles, a fuzzy probability prediction method is formulated for track changes. It is 48-h valid for forecasting sudden change or stable track as well as giving fuzzy probability of trajectory, for the use in decision-making. As shown in operational experiments, if is easy to operate, simple to illustrate, objective to quantify.definite to conclude. and satisfactory to actualize. It is dependable with high level of reference, especially when the fuzzy probability is greater than 70%. for errors in direction and 48-h mean distance errors are all lower than those at major forecasting centers at home or abroad.
Based on forecasting criteria of tropical cyclone categories of left and right turning and stable track and fuzzy mathematical principles, a fuzzy probability prediction method is formulated for track changes. It is 48-h valid for forecasting sudden change or stable track as well as giving fuzzy probability of trajectory, for the use in decision-making. As shown in operational experiments, if is easy to operate, simple to illustrate, objective to quantify.definite to conclude. and satisfactory to actualize. It is dependable with high level of reference, especially when the fuzzy probability is greater than 70%. for errors in direction and 48-h mean distance errors are all lower than those at major forecasting centers at home or abroad.
1998, 4(2): 172-180.
Abstract:
The ozone data observed by TOMS in every 5°N are extended into the phase space to describe the characteristics of ozone with phase trace. First of all, the fractional dimension of the ozone layer is calculated. Then.the phase points are regarded as some discrete characteristics solution, and the parameters of mathematical model which describe the time variation of system state are retrieved, so that the nonlinear dynamic system which reflects the short-term variation of zonal average ozone layer over the tropics is rebuilt.
The ozone data observed by TOMS in every 5°N are extended into the phase space to describe the characteristics of ozone with phase trace. First of all, the fractional dimension of the ozone layer is calculated. Then.the phase points are regarded as some discrete characteristics solution, and the parameters of mathematical model which describe the time variation of system state are retrieved, so that the nonlinear dynamic system which reflects the short-term variation of zonal average ozone layer over the tropics is rebuilt.
1998, 4(2): 181-187.
Abstract:
Analyzing the anomalous field of SST over the tropical Pacific for two kinds of ENSO events after 1956. we find that in the preceding year before the eastern pattern of El Nino event there is the La Nina event and large negative anomalies of SST in the tropical central and eastern Pacific; the preceding year before the eastern pattern of La Nina event witnesses the prevalence of the El Nino event and large positive anomalies of SST in the same waters: the preceding year before the central patterns of the El Nino (La Nina) events are generally marked by significant positive (negative) SST anomalies in central/western (eastern) tropical Pacific. The fields are just the opposite for two patterns of ENSO events. For waters in the warm pool in the western tropical Pacific, the central (eastern) pattern of El Nino event is with a warm (cool) preceding year of the pool. The warmer conditions in the western Pacific warm pool are a necessity for the occurrence of the central pattern of El Nino event.
Analyzing the anomalous field of SST over the tropical Pacific for two kinds of ENSO events after 1956. we find that in the preceding year before the eastern pattern of El Nino event there is the La Nina event and large negative anomalies of SST in the tropical central and eastern Pacific; the preceding year before the eastern pattern of La Nina event witnesses the prevalence of the El Nino event and large positive anomalies of SST in the same waters: the preceding year before the central patterns of the El Nino (La Nina) events are generally marked by significant positive (negative) SST anomalies in central/western (eastern) tropical Pacific. The fields are just the opposite for two patterns of ENSO events. For waters in the warm pool in the western tropical Pacific, the central (eastern) pattern of El Nino event is with a warm (cool) preceding year of the pool. The warmer conditions in the western Pacific warm pool are a necessity for the occurrence of the central pattern of El Nino event.
1998, 4(2): 188-200.
Abstract:
IAP-GCM is used to document the forced teleresponse of the atmosphere to anomalies of the Antarctic sea ice as the important triggering mechanism for intraseasonal atmospheric oscillations across the globe. The time series of pentad-averaged deviations are then focused on and. with the band-pass filter approach, to address essential features of the 30-60 day low-frequency oscillation in the response field. It is found that tile atmospheric response to the retreat of the Antarctic sea ice is of low frequency at a period of 30-60 days. The main component is the 30-60 day intraseasonal oscillation in the forced field, with the vertical structure and distribution features similar to real atmosphere.
IAP-GCM is used to document the forced teleresponse of the atmosphere to anomalies of the Antarctic sea ice as the important triggering mechanism for intraseasonal atmospheric oscillations across the globe. The time series of pentad-averaged deviations are then focused on and. with the band-pass filter approach, to address essential features of the 30-60 day low-frequency oscillation in the response field. It is found that tile atmospheric response to the retreat of the Antarctic sea ice is of low frequency at a period of 30-60 days. The main component is the 30-60 day intraseasonal oscillation in the forced field, with the vertical structure and distribution features similar to real atmosphere.
1998, 4(2): 201-207.
Abstract:
On the basis of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, a semi-empirical expression of universal functions is fitted by means of the iteration method. using the gradient observation data of wind and temperature in the surface layer. The characteristics of bulk transfer coefficient are studied and some empirical relationships among the bulk transfer coefficient, the wind speed and temperature are obtained. The applicability of the results is investigated using observation data.
On the basis of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, a semi-empirical expression of universal functions is fitted by means of the iteration method. using the gradient observation data of wind and temperature in the surface layer. The characteristics of bulk transfer coefficient are studied and some empirical relationships among the bulk transfer coefficient, the wind speed and temperature are obtained. The applicability of the results is investigated using observation data.
1998, 4(2): 208-214.
Abstract:
Using indexes of dryness and wetness in historical record over the recent recent years and rainfall data over the tatest century, the work involves itself with the study of climatological evolution of dryness and wetness. periodic variations of climate and interannual laws of variation. The discussion also covers the subjects of effects of El Nino. sunspot, predictors of general circulation on climatic variation of dryness and wetness. There arc main conclusions as follows: (1) The main cyclic variations of climate are 40 and 11 years in Kunming. the former being subject to that of El Nino and the latter to that of sunspots. They are two principal factors for periodic variations of dryness and wetness in Kunming. (2) A close relationship exists between interannual variations and general circulation factors for Kunming. The comprehensive influence as imposed by ENSO and allocations of W.C.E. patterns of circulation in the westerly are ma.tor weather and climate causes for the interannual variations of precipitation in Kunming.
Using indexes of dryness and wetness in historical record over the recent recent years and rainfall data over the tatest century, the work involves itself with the study of climatological evolution of dryness and wetness. periodic variations of climate and interannual laws of variation. The discussion also covers the subjects of effects of El Nino. sunspot, predictors of general circulation on climatic variation of dryness and wetness. There arc main conclusions as follows: (1) The main cyclic variations of climate are 40 and 11 years in Kunming. the former being subject to that of El Nino and the latter to that of sunspots. They are two principal factors for periodic variations of dryness and wetness in Kunming. (2) A close relationship exists between interannual variations and general circulation factors for Kunming. The comprehensive influence as imposed by ENSO and allocations of W.C.E. patterns of circulation in the westerly are ma.tor weather and climate causes for the interannual variations of precipitation in Kunming.
1998, 4(2): 215-219.
Abstract:
Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that are widely used and the results show that there has been significant increase in the capability of forecasting with the improvement by the consensus procedure.
Obvious results have been achieved in the forecast of typhoon track that is improved with a consensus procedure Forecast experiments were conducted with the analogue model (TSF) and the Markov type model (MTSF)that are widely used and the results show that there has been significant increase in the capability of forecasting with the improvement by the consensus procedure.
1998, 4(2)
Abstract:
The major purpose of this study was to develop a predictive model of the yearly frequency of typhoon.Based on historical data, a predictive model of yearly frequency of typhoon that landed in South China was proposed during the season of typhoon using the basic thinking and its algorithm of Pro.jcction Pursuit Regression (PPR). The results show that the predictive precision of PPR model is much better than that of stepwise regression (SR) model.
The major purpose of this study was to develop a predictive model of the yearly frequency of typhoon.Based on historical data, a predictive model of yearly frequency of typhoon that landed in South China was proposed during the season of typhoon using the basic thinking and its algorithm of Pro.jcction Pursuit Regression (PPR). The results show that the predictive precision of PPR model is much better than that of stepwise regression (SR) model.
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