2003 Vol. 9, No. 2
2003, 9(2): 113-123.
Abstract:
The statistical character of QuikSCAT scatterometer winds is showed. And Monthly change and special distribution character of strong wind frequency and monthly wind fields in South China Sea is analyzed. It is shown in the result that the QuikSCAT scatterometer winds can be relied upon for the South China Sea; two winds, one the wintertime northeasterly and the other summertime southwesterly. The northeasterly centers at the Bashi Strait and Taiwam Strait and its secondary center and the maximum center of the southwesterly are in the central and southern South China Sea.
The statistical character of QuikSCAT scatterometer winds is showed. And Monthly change and special distribution character of strong wind frequency and monthly wind fields in South China Sea is analyzed. It is shown in the result that the QuikSCAT scatterometer winds can be relied upon for the South China Sea; two winds, one the wintertime northeasterly and the other summertime southwesterly. The northeasterly centers at the Bashi Strait and Taiwam Strait and its secondary center and the maximum center of the southwesterly are in the central and southern South China Sea.
2003, 9(2): 124-133.
Abstract:
Based on the theory of Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), the correlation between 500 hPa geopotential height (H) fields over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and a 15-region rainfall (R) field of China in May is studied. The results indicate that: (1) there is a strong relationship between the H fields in January / May and the R field in China, (2) the variation of the general circulation over the whole NH (especially the 500 hPa H field over Europe and Asia) can affect the R in China, (3) in January and February the atmospheric general circulation can affect the R mainly by means of planetary waves, while in April and May the main control mechanism can be due to some teleconnections, and (4) the characteristic vectors for R in May and H from January to May have wave train structure, alternating sign from south to north.
Based on the theory of Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), the correlation between 500 hPa geopotential height (H) fields over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and a 15-region rainfall (R) field of China in May is studied. The results indicate that: (1) there is a strong relationship between the H fields in January / May and the R field in China, (2) the variation of the general circulation over the whole NH (especially the 500 hPa H field over Europe and Asia) can affect the R in China, (3) in January and February the atmospheric general circulation can affect the R mainly by means of planetary waves, while in April and May the main control mechanism can be due to some teleconnections, and (4) the characteristic vectors for R in May and H from January to May have wave train structure, alternating sign from south to north.
2003, 9(2): 134-142.
Abstract:
Based on the real case of a frontal precipitation process affecting South China, 27 controlled numerical experiments was made for the effects of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic effects, different driving models, combinations of initial/boundary conditions, updates of lateral values and initial time levels of forecast, on model predictions. Features about the impact of initial/boundary conditions on mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are analyzed and discussed in detail. Some theoretically and practically valuable conclusions are drawn. It is found that the overall tendency of mesoscale NWP models is governed by its driving model, with the initial conditions showing remarkable impacts on mesoscale models for the first I0 hours of the predictions while leaving lateral boundary conditions to take care the period beyond; the latter affect the inner area of mesoscale predictions mainly through the propagation and movement of weather signals (waves) of different time scales; initial values of external model parameters such as soil moisture content may affect predictions of more longer time validity, while fast signals may be filtered away and only information with time scale 4 times as large as or more than the updated period of boundary values may be introduced, through lateral boundary, to mesoseale models, etc. Some results may be taken as important guidance on mesoseale model and its data a.ssimilation developments of the future.
Based on the real case of a frontal precipitation process affecting South China, 27 controlled numerical experiments was made for the effects of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic effects, different driving models, combinations of initial/boundary conditions, updates of lateral values and initial time levels of forecast, on model predictions. Features about the impact of initial/boundary conditions on mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are analyzed and discussed in detail. Some theoretically and practically valuable conclusions are drawn. It is found that the overall tendency of mesoscale NWP models is governed by its driving model, with the initial conditions showing remarkable impacts on mesoscale models for the first I0 hours of the predictions while leaving lateral boundary conditions to take care the period beyond; the latter affect the inner area of mesoscale predictions mainly through the propagation and movement of weather signals (waves) of different time scales; initial values of external model parameters such as soil moisture content may affect predictions of more longer time validity, while fast signals may be filtered away and only information with time scale 4 times as large as or more than the updated period of boundary values may be introduced, through lateral boundary, to mesoseale models, etc. Some results may be taken as important guidance on mesoseale model and its data a.ssimilation developments of the future.
2003, 9(2): 143-151.
Abstract:
Based on the QuikSCAT data, the features of surface wind distribution of the typhoon Vongfong landfall process are analyzed. We have also studied the variance spectral configuration of the surface wind field using DCT (Discrete Cosine Transform). The conclusions are as follows: The near-surface wind field is highly asymmetric; the variance components of asymmetric surface wind field depend mainly on the airflow direction of wavenumber 1 and 2. When the typhoon moves west, there are two wave spectral centers lining up in the zonal direction, mainly the airflow from zonal wavenumber 2 and meridional wavenumber 2; when it moves north, there are two wave spectral centers in a meridional array, mainly the airflow from zonal wavenumber 1 and meridional wavenumber 2. The airflow for wavenumber 1 mainly contributes to the variance of the tangential wind while that for wavenumber 2 to the variance of the radial wind. The asymmetrical distribution changes with the large-scale environment and self-rotating circulation around the typhoon. When it approached land, the associated gale appears in front portion in the advancing direction of the storm. It is in effect similar to the model of Chen Lian-shou for typhoon-related gales ― NNW on the left front portion and SE on the right front portion.
Based on the QuikSCAT data, the features of surface wind distribution of the typhoon Vongfong landfall process are analyzed. We have also studied the variance spectral configuration of the surface wind field using DCT (Discrete Cosine Transform). The conclusions are as follows: The near-surface wind field is highly asymmetric; the variance components of asymmetric surface wind field depend mainly on the airflow direction of wavenumber 1 and 2. When the typhoon moves west, there are two wave spectral centers lining up in the zonal direction, mainly the airflow from zonal wavenumber 2 and meridional wavenumber 2; when it moves north, there are two wave spectral centers in a meridional array, mainly the airflow from zonal wavenumber 1 and meridional wavenumber 2. The airflow for wavenumber 1 mainly contributes to the variance of the tangential wind while that for wavenumber 2 to the variance of the radial wind. The asymmetrical distribution changes with the large-scale environment and self-rotating circulation around the typhoon. When it approached land, the associated gale appears in front portion in the advancing direction of the storm. It is in effect similar to the model of Chen Lian-shou for typhoon-related gales ― NNW on the left front portion and SE on the right front portion.
2003, 9(2): 152-157.
Abstract:
Typhoon Winnie (1997) experienced three stages after landfall on China: weakening, transition, and re-intensification. The transition is similar to the "complex transition" model proposed by Matano and Sekioka. During the re-intensification stage, the transformed cyclone developed into a pattern of Shapiro-Keyser Cyclone model. From the diagnosis we can find that the cause of Winnie's transition is the intrusion of cold air from the mid- and upper- troposphere and the warm temperature advection in the lower. Winnie redeveloped after transition, which is the result of three vital factors: the warm temperature advection in the lower troposphere, the divergence on the right side of the upper jet entry and the cyclonic vorticity advection in the upper.
Typhoon Winnie (1997) experienced three stages after landfall on China: weakening, transition, and re-intensification. The transition is similar to the "complex transition" model proposed by Matano and Sekioka. During the re-intensification stage, the transformed cyclone developed into a pattern of Shapiro-Keyser Cyclone model. From the diagnosis we can find that the cause of Winnie's transition is the intrusion of cold air from the mid- and upper- troposphere and the warm temperature advection in the lower. Winnie redeveloped after transition, which is the result of three vital factors: the warm temperature advection in the lower troposphere, the divergence on the right side of the upper jet entry and the cyclonic vorticity advection in the upper.
2003, 9(2): 158-163.
Abstract:
Detailed analysis and comparisons are made on the data of Hong Kong wind-profiler and the weather/precipitation every hour during the HUAMEX and the experiment for the monsoon of the South China Sea (SCSMEX) in 1998. It is found that the wind-profiler data could reveal the meso-scale phenomena in the PBL of Southwest Monsoon, which was closely related to rainstorms. The center of the low-level jet under the altitude of 2 km, which corresponded to the appearance of heavy rain, appeared 1 to 2 hours after the center of low-level jet (LLJ) did above the 2-km altitude. An index I is designed to represent the intensity and height of the LLJ. This index can express clearly the close relationship between the precipitation and the LLJ. The results show that the wind-profiler is somewhat predictive to a rainstorm.
Detailed analysis and comparisons are made on the data of Hong Kong wind-profiler and the weather/precipitation every hour during the HUAMEX and the experiment for the monsoon of the South China Sea (SCSMEX) in 1998. It is found that the wind-profiler data could reveal the meso-scale phenomena in the PBL of Southwest Monsoon, which was closely related to rainstorms. The center of the low-level jet under the altitude of 2 km, which corresponded to the appearance of heavy rain, appeared 1 to 2 hours after the center of low-level jet (LLJ) did above the 2-km altitude. An index I is designed to represent the intensity and height of the LLJ. This index can express clearly the close relationship between the precipitation and the LLJ. The results show that the wind-profiler is somewhat predictive to a rainstorm.
2003, 9(2): 164-172.
Abstract:
Based on the monthly precipitation data of 126 observation stations from 1961 to 2000 in Yunnan Province, the interannual and decadal variability of precipitation in rainy seasons are studied by using wavelet analysis. It is shown that there is a 2-6 year oscillation at the interannual time scales and a quasi-30 year oscillation at the decadal time scales. These periodic oscillations relate to the distribution of tropical heat content. When the precipitation is much more (less) than normal, the upper seawater is colder (warmer) in almost all the tropical Indian Ocean, and warmer (colder) in the western Pacific as well as colder (warmer) in the eastern Pacific. The key areas of the anomaly heat content distribution that have significant correlation to the Yunnan precipitation in rainy season are in the southern hemispheric Indian Ocean with a dipole pattern in the winter as well as in the deep basin of the South China Sea (SCS) before the Yunnan rainy season begins. Therefore, the anomalous distributions of the heat content in the southern Indian Ocean and the SCS In winter are good indicators for predicting drought or flood in Yunnan Province in the following rainy season.
Based on the monthly precipitation data of 126 observation stations from 1961 to 2000 in Yunnan Province, the interannual and decadal variability of precipitation in rainy seasons are studied by using wavelet analysis. It is shown that there is a 2-6 year oscillation at the interannual time scales and a quasi-30 year oscillation at the decadal time scales. These periodic oscillations relate to the distribution of tropical heat content. When the precipitation is much more (less) than normal, the upper seawater is colder (warmer) in almost all the tropical Indian Ocean, and warmer (colder) in the western Pacific as well as colder (warmer) in the eastern Pacific. The key areas of the anomaly heat content distribution that have significant correlation to the Yunnan precipitation in rainy season are in the southern hemispheric Indian Ocean with a dipole pattern in the winter as well as in the deep basin of the South China Sea (SCS) before the Yunnan rainy season begins. Therefore, the anomalous distributions of the heat content in the southern Indian Ocean and the SCS In winter are good indicators for predicting drought or flood in Yunnan Province in the following rainy season.
2003, 9(2): 173-180.
Abstract:
Effects of aerosol with focus on the direct climate effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol under 2 ×CO2 condition were investigated by introducing aerosol distribution into the latest version of RegCM2. Two experiments, first run (2×CO2 + 0 aerosol concentration) and second run (2×CO2+ aerosol distribution), were made for 5 years respectively. Preliminary analysis shows that the direct climate effect of aerosol might cause a decrease of surface air temperature. The decrease might be larger in winter and in South China. The regional-averaged monthly precipitation might also decrease in most of the months due to the effect. The annual mean change of precipitation might be a decrease in East and an increase in West China. But the changes of both temperature and precipitation simulated were much smaller as compared to the greenhouse effect.
Effects of aerosol with focus on the direct climate effect of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol under 2 ×CO2 condition were investigated by introducing aerosol distribution into the latest version of RegCM2. Two experiments, first run (2×CO2 + 0 aerosol concentration) and second run (2×CO2+ aerosol distribution), were made for 5 years respectively. Preliminary analysis shows that the direct climate effect of aerosol might cause a decrease of surface air temperature. The decrease might be larger in winter and in South China. The regional-averaged monthly precipitation might also decrease in most of the months due to the effect. The annual mean change of precipitation might be a decrease in East and an increase in West China. But the changes of both temperature and precipitation simulated were much smaller as compared to the greenhouse effect.
2003, 9(2): 181-190.
Abstract:
Based on the 4-layer dbl wavelet packet and shannon entropy decomposition /reconstruction method and the NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data set, the correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon and the Northern Hemisphere Pacific subtropical high seasonal modality/shift xvas studied and discussed, and a corresponding summer monsoon frequency-band energy criterion was defined and introduced for diagnosing the Pacific subtropical high's modality/shift. A few new phenomena and correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon and the Northern Hemisphere Pacific subtropical high were also revealed and presented.
Based on the 4-layer dbl wavelet packet and shannon entropy decomposition /reconstruction method and the NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data set, the correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon and the Northern Hemisphere Pacific subtropical high seasonal modality/shift xvas studied and discussed, and a corresponding summer monsoon frequency-band energy criterion was defined and introduced for diagnosing the Pacific subtropical high's modality/shift. A few new phenomena and correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon and the Northern Hemisphere Pacific subtropical high were also revealed and presented.
2003, 9(2): 191-200.
Abstract:
Basic climatic characteristics are analyzed concerning the precipitation anomalies in raining seasons over regions south of the Changjiang River (the Yangtze). It finds that the regions are the earliest in eastern China where raining seasons begin and end. Precipitation there tends to decrease over the past 50 years. Waters bounded by 9°S –C1°S, 121°E –C 129°E are the key zones of SST anomalies that affect the precipitation in these regions over May ~ July in preceding years. Long-term air-sea interactions make it possible for preceding SST anomalies to affect the general circulation that come afterwards, causing precipitation anomalies in the raining seasons in regions south of the Changjiang River in subsequent years.
Basic climatic characteristics are analyzed concerning the precipitation anomalies in raining seasons over regions south of the Changjiang River (the Yangtze). It finds that the regions are the earliest in eastern China where raining seasons begin and end. Precipitation there tends to decrease over the past 50 years. Waters bounded by 9°S –C1°S, 121°E –C 129°E are the key zones of SST anomalies that affect the precipitation in these regions over May ~ July in preceding years. Long-term air-sea interactions make it possible for preceding SST anomalies to affect the general circulation that come afterwards, causing precipitation anomalies in the raining seasons in regions south of the Changjiang River in subsequent years.
2003, 9(2): 201-207.
Abstract:
Using the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), the evolution regularity of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong are analyzed. The main periods of yearly topical cyclones landing in Guangdong are found at 8 and quasi-3 years, and in the west of Pearl River Mouth are 12 and quasi-2 years to the west of Pearl River Mouth. The northwest Pacific that topical cyclones are generated is divided into 8 areas, and the SeaSurface Temperature (SST) in each area is analyzed using SSA. The main periods of NINO-west are 8 and 3 years, and those of the warm pool are 12 and 2 years, respectively. This may be the physical reason for the generation tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong. By combining the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) with SSA (SSAMEM), the yearly variation trend of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong and the Pearl River Mouth are forceast, and the results are good. The method can be used in operational short-range climate forecast.
Using the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), the evolution regularity of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong are analyzed. The main periods of yearly topical cyclones landing in Guangdong are found at 8 and quasi-3 years, and in the west of Pearl River Mouth are 12 and quasi-2 years to the west of Pearl River Mouth. The northwest Pacific that topical cyclones are generated is divided into 8 areas, and the SeaSurface Temperature (SST) in each area is analyzed using SSA. The main periods of NINO-west are 8 and 3 years, and those of the warm pool are 12 and 2 years, respectively. This may be the physical reason for the generation tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong. By combining the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) with SSA (SSAMEM), the yearly variation trend of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong and the Pearl River Mouth are forceast, and the results are good. The method can be used in operational short-range climate forecast.
2003, 9(2): 208-214.
Abstract:
Helicity was applied to analyze several high-wind and rainstorm processes, which occurred from May to June, 2001 over Yunnan in early summer. The results of diagnostic analyses show that the rainstorm occurs in the area in which hp is positive at 700 hPa and energy is unstable. The change of helicity can reflect the movement and development of synoptic system and the position and intensity of the rainstorm. The value of hp is a negative center at the upper level and a positive at the lower level over the rainstorm position; moreover it can reflect the characteristics of vertical distribution and rotational motion.
Helicity was applied to analyze several high-wind and rainstorm processes, which occurred from May to June, 2001 over Yunnan in early summer. The results of diagnostic analyses show that the rainstorm occurs in the area in which hp is positive at 700 hPa and energy is unstable. The change of helicity can reflect the movement and development of synoptic system and the position and intensity of the rainstorm. The value of hp is a negative center at the upper level and a positive at the lower level over the rainstorm position; moreover it can reflect the characteristics of vertical distribution and rotational motion.
2003, 9(2): 215-224.
Abstract:
A series of 96-h typhoon track prediction experiments were carried out using medium range forecasting system of NMC by adding BOGUS typhoon (simplified as B-TC) into the first guess field or the analysis field in order to provide longer time typhoon track forecast. The results show that T106L19 could provide a better forecast to typhoon tracks when the B-TC was added, especially when the typhoon vortex is even weaker. The sensitive experiments on where to add the B-TC show that the results from adding the B-TC into the first guess field are better. The results also show that the initialization smoothes the B-TC a lot and this will affect the typhoon track prediction.
A series of 96-h typhoon track prediction experiments were carried out using medium range forecasting system of NMC by adding BOGUS typhoon (simplified as B-TC) into the first guess field or the analysis field in order to provide longer time typhoon track forecast. The results show that T106L19 could provide a better forecast to typhoon tracks when the B-TC was added, especially when the typhoon vortex is even weaker. The sensitive experiments on where to add the B-TC show that the results from adding the B-TC into the first guess field are better. The results also show that the initialization smoothes the B-TC a lot and this will affect the typhoon track prediction.
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