A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON CHINA

LI Xiao-juan; WENG Xiang-yu; XIE Ding-sheng; LIANG Jian

Abstract:

Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Yearbook of China landfalling tropical cyclones (hereafter CLTC) from 1949 to 2008, correlation between CLTC frequency/intensity and 500 hPa height field and sea surface temperature (SST) fields are investigated and employed for TC statistical prediction. A prediction model for yearly and monthly intensity and frequency of CLTC is established with binomial curve fitting by choosing the gridpoints with high correlation coefficients as composite factors. Good performance of the model in experiments shows that the model could be used in routine forecast.

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LI Xiao-juan, WENG Xiang-yu, XIE Ding-sheng, et al. A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON CHINA [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2012, 18(1): 108-112.

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A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON CHINA

Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080 China

Received Date: 2010-08-25

Rev Recd Date: 2011-12-20

Abstract: Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Yearbook of China landfalling tropical cyclones (hereafter CLTC) from 1949 to 2008, correlation between CLTC frequency/intensity and 500 hPa height field and sea surface temperature (SST) fields are investigated and employed for TC statistical prediction. A prediction model for yearly and monthly intensity and frequency of CLTC is established with binomial curve fitting by choosing the gridpoints with high correlation coefficients as composite factors. Good performance of the model in experiments shows that the model could be used in routine forecast.

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A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON CHINA

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