2010 Vol. 16, No. 4

AN ANALYSIS ON LARGE-SCALE AIR-SEA INTERACTIVE LINKAGES BETWEEN THE TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN AND THEPACIFIC OCEAN DURING ENSO EVENTS
DENG Bei-sheng, LIU Hai-tao, CHOU Ji-fan
2010, 16(4): 305-312.
Abstract(1549) PDF [563KB](1241)
Abstract:
By utilizing a 3-D atmospheric circulation resolving method, the authors studied the air-sea interactive linkages between the tropical Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean in 1979-2008 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Their findings showed that evident 3-D gear-coupling characteristics existed in the 1979-2008 ENSO events. Their resolving analyses also suggested that the general circulation showed stronger and wider sinking motions over the eastern Indian Ocean-western Pacific during the mature phase of 1979-2008 ENSO events, compared with the vertical velocities from the U.S. National Centers for Enviornmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. With their 3-D analysis method, the vertical velocity was resolved by two components, i.e. zonal and meridional components. It was found that the zonal component of the vertical velocities showed a strong sinking motion while the meridional components showed an upward motion during the prevailing phases of the ENSO events. In the tropics, the zonal component of the vertical velocities was found greater than the meridional component, reflecting the dominant characteristics of the vertical velocity, and the overall outcomes showed a strong sinking motion, although the two components also partially offset each other in the processes. Compared with the vertical velocities from NCEP reanalysis, the vertical motions calculated with the 3-D resolving analysis method demonstrate some advantages.
MODIS BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE DATA ASSIMILATION UNDER CLOUDY CONDITIONS: METHODS AND IDEAL TESTS
DING Wei-yu, WAN Qi-lin, ZHANG Chen-zhong, CHEN Zi-tong, HUANG Yan-yan
2010, 16(4): 313-324.
Abstract(1445) PDF [674KB](1518)
Abstract:
Clouds have important effects on the infrared radiances transmission in that the inclusion of cloud effects in data assimilation can not only improve the quality of the assimilated atmospheric parameters greatly, but also minimize the initial error of cloud parameters by adjusting part of the infrared radiances data. On the basis of the Grapes-3D-var (Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System), cloud liquid water, cloud ice water and cloud cover are added as the governing variables in the assimilation. Under the conditions of clear sky, partly cloudy cover and totally cloudy cover, the brightness temperature of 16 MODIS channels are assimilated respectively in ideal tests. Results show that when the simulated background brightness temperatures are lower than the observation, the analyzed field will increase the simulated brightness temperature by increasing its temperature and reducing its moisture, cloud liquid water, cloud ice water, and cloud cover. The simulated brightness temperature can be reduced if adjustment is made in the contrary direction. The adjustment of the temperature and specific humidity under the clear sky conditions conforms well to the design of MODIS channels, but it is weakened for levels under cloud layers. The ideal tests demonstrate that by simultaneously adding both cloud parameters and atmospheric parameters as governing variables during the assimilation of infrared radiances, both the cloud parameters and atmospheric parameters can be adjusted using the observed infrared radiances and conventional meteorological elements to make full use of the infrared observations.
AN ANALYSIS OF THE WINTER EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS ON THE BACKGROUND OF CLIMATE WARMING IN SOUTHERN CHINA
ZHI Xie-fei, ZHANG Ling, PAN Jia-lu
2010, 16(4): 325-332.
Abstract(1623) PDF [455KB](1534)
Abstract:
Based on daily precipitation and monthly temperature data in southern China, the winter extreme precipitation changes in southern China have been investigated by using the Mann-Kendall test and the return values of Generalized Pareto Distribution. The results show that a winter climate catastrophe in southern China occurred around 1991, and the intensity of winter extreme precipitation was strengthened after climate warming. The anomalous circulation characteristics before and after the climate warming was further analyzed by using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. It is found that the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is negatively correlated with the precipitation in southeastern China. After climate warming the meridionality of the circulations in middle and high latitudes increases, which is favorable for the southward movement of the cold air from the north. In addition, the increase of the temperature over southern China may lead to the decrease of the differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Consequently, the tropical winter monsoon over East Asia is weakened, which is favorable for the transport of the warm and humid air to southeastern China and the formation of the anomalous convergence of the moisture flux, resulting in large precipitation over southeastern China. As a result, the interaction between the anomalous circulations in the middle and high latitudes and lower latitudes after the climate warming plays a major role in the increase of the winter precipitation intensity over southeastern China.
VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION USING WAVELET BACKGROUND ERROR COVARIANCE: INITIALIZATION OF TYPHOON KAEMI (2006)
ZHANG Wei-min, CAO Xiao-qun, XIAO Qin-nong, SONG Jun-qiang, ZHU Xiao-qian, WANG Shu-chang
2010, 16(4): 333-340.
Abstract(1500) PDF [287KB](1502)
Abstract:
Background error covariance plays an important role in any variational data assimilation system, because it determines how information from observations is spread in model space and between different model variables. In this paper, the use of orthogonal wavelets in representation of background error covariance over a limited area is studied. Based on the WRF model and its 3D-VAR system, an algorithm using orthogonal wavelets to model background error covariance is developed. Because each wavelet function contains information on both position and scale, using a diagonal correlation matrix in wavelet space gives the possibility to represent some anisotropic and inhomogeneous characteristics of background error covariance. The experiments show that local correlation functions are better modeled than spectral methods. The formulation of wavelet background error covariance is tested with the typhoon Kaemi (2006). The results of experiments indicate that the subsequent forecasts of typhoon Kaemi’s track and intensity are significantly improved by the new method.
DIFFERENCES AMONG DIFFERENT DATABASES IN THE NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMING OVER THE WESTERN NORTHPACIFIC
WU Sheng-an, KONG Hai-jiang, WU hui
2010, 16(4): 341-347.
Abstract(1309) PDF [381KB](1348)
Abstract:
As shown in comparisons of the characteristics of inter-annual and inter-decadal variability and periodical changes in the number of tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific by three major forecast centers, i.e. China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Center of Tokyo (JMA) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of Guam, there are the following important points. (1) Climatology of tropical cyclone (TC) or typhoon (TC on the intensity of TS or stronger) shows some difference in tropical cyclone frequency among the centers, which is more notable with TC than with typhoon. Both of them are more at the database of CMA than at those of the other two centers. (2) The difference is too significant to ignore in the inter-annual variability of tropical cyclone frequency between CMA and JTWC, which mainly results from the obvious difference in the inter-annual variability of the number of generated tropical depression (TD) between the two databases. The difference is small in the inter-annual variability of TS formations among all the three databases, and consistence is good between JMA and CMA or JTWC. (3) Though differences are not significant in the periodical variation of TC formations between CMA and JTWC, they are markedly apart in the inter-decadal variability, which is mainly shown by an anti-phase during the 1990s. (4) Non-homogeneity may exist around the late stage of the 1960s in the data of tropical cyclone frequency.
NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET BASED ON GRAPES MODEL AND EXPERIMENTS ON INITIAL MODELFIELDS
ZHOU Hui, ZHU Guo-qiang, CHEN Jiang-min, DING Xiao-jian, HUANG Sai-qun
2010, 16(4): 348-354.
Abstract(1681) PDF [2328KB](1203)
Abstract:
The Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES), a limited-area regional model, was used to simulate the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. In view of the relatively insufficient information about the initial field in simulation predictions, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B) data from a NOAA satellite were introduced to improve the initial values. By directly using the 3-dimensional variational data assimilation system of GRAPES, two schemes for assimilation tests were designed. In the design, Test 1 (T1) assimilates both sounding and AMSU-B data, and Test 2 (T2) assimilates only the conventional sounding data, before applying the model in simulation forecasts. Comparative experiments showed that the model was very sensitive to initial fields and successful in reproducing the monsoon onset, allocation of high- and low-level wind fields during the pentad of onset, and the northward advancement of the monsoon and monsoon rain bands. The scheme, however, simulated rainfall and the location of the subtropical high with deviations from observations. The simulated location of the subtropical high was more westward and northward and the simulated rainfall for the South China Sea was larger and covered a broader area.
NUMERICAL MODELING STUDY OF EFFECTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL ON ENSO
YUE Cai-jun, LU Wei-song, Xiaofan LI
2010, 16(4): 355-362.
Abstract(1492) PDF [455KB](1180)
Abstract:
In this study, sensitivity experiments were conducted with the Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupled model forced by the wind stress anomaly from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data to study the impacts of eastern Pacific warm pool on the formation and development of ENSO events. The effects of climatological mean sea surface temperature of the warm pool on forecast skill during the ENSO events of 1982–C1999 are more considerable that those of climatological mean meridional winds and ocean currents. The forecast skill for the 1997/1998 El Niño event is characterized by sensitivity to climatological mean sea surface temperature and anomalies of northerly winds and currents. The forecast skill is found insensitive to climatological mean northerly meridional winds and currents.
EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON A DYNAMIC ASYMMETRICAL TYPHOON INITIALIZATION SCHEME BASED ON 4D-VAR
YUAN Bing, FEI Jian-fang, WANG Yun-feng, HAN Yue-qi
2010, 16(4): 363-371.
Abstract(1421) PDF [830KB](1228)
Abstract:
Axisymmetric bogus vortexes at sea level are usually used in the traditional bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. In the traditional scheme, the vortex could not accurately describe the specific characteristics of a typhoon, and the evolving real typhoon is forced to unreasonably adapt to this changeless vortex. For this reason, an asymmetrical typhoon bogus method with information blended from the analysis and the observation is put forward in this paper, in which the impact of the Subtropical High is also taken into consideration. With the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its adjoint model, a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) technique is employed to build a dynamic asymmetrical BDA scheme to assimilate different asymmetrical bogus vortexes at different time. The track and intensity of six summer typhoons much influenced by the Subtropical High are simulated and the results are compared. It is shown that the improvement in track simulation in the new scheme is more significant than that in the traditional scheme. Moreover, the periods for which the track cannot be simulated well by the traditional scheme can be improved with the new scheme. The results also reveal that although the simulated typhoon intensity in the new scheme is generally weaker than that in the traditional scheme, this trend enables the new scheme to simulate, in the later period, closer-to-observation intensity than the traditional scheme. However, despite the fact that the observed intensity has been largely weakened, the simulated intensity at later periods of the BDA schemes is still very intensive, resulting in overly development of the typhoon during the simulation. The limitation to the simulation effect of the BDA scheme due to this condition needs to be further studied.
PRELIMINARY STUDY ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DOUBLE VORTICES SELF-ORGANIZATION AND TYPHOON FORMATION IN BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT
TENG Dai-gao, LUO Zhe-xian, PAN Jing-song, YU Hui
2010, 16(4): 372-379.
Abstract(1599) PDF [959KB](1197)
Abstract:
The relationship between the self-organization of double vortices (SODVs) and the formation of typhoons was discussed based on six numerical experiments with the Fifth-Generation National Center for Atmospheric Research/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) and further discussion was made with a real typhoon case. The results showed that there is a critical distance dc for SODVs in baroclinic atmosphere. When the distance between separated vortices is smaller than or equal to dc, the double vortices self-organize into a typhoon-like vortex with two spiral bands. But the double vortices cannot have such organization if the distance between them is larger than dc. The value of dc is about 380 km in the context of ideal conditions in this paper, larger than that achieved in a barotropic model. A typical typhoon case in 2005 (Haitang) was selected to verify the above-mentioned conclusions. It was found that the SODV is one of the important and typical ways for the formation of typhoons.
STUDY OF DOUBLE RAIN BANDS IN A PERSISTENT RAINSTORM OVER SOUTH CHINA
DING Zhi-ying, LIU Cai-hong, CHANG Yue, SHEN Xin-yong, HE Jin-hai, XU Hai-ming
2010, 16(4): 380-389.
Abstract(1296) PDF [892KB](1275)
Abstract:
Using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data at 1°×1° resolution, analysis is performed on a persistent heavy rainfall event with two rain bands to the south of the Yangtze River during 17–C22 June 2005. The northern rain band was related to the atmospheric mass adjustment of cold front precipitation and the associated ageostrophic feature to the rear right of subtropical westerly jets, while the southern counterpart formed under the joint influence of easterly/westerly jets and the South Asian high (SAH). The ageostrophic wind field to the rear right of the easterly jet center gives rise to an anti-circulation that favors the genesis of the southern belt. The feature of du/dt <0 around the SAH ridge line and to the rear right of the easterly jet streak results in a strong v –C vg<0 field in the vicinity of the rain region as well as to its south. When westerly jets move southward, an intense v –C vg>0 feature appears to the north of the rain region, i.e., behind the center of the westerly jets. The associated mass adjustment leads to vigorous divergence over the rain region, which is responsible for the strong precipitation from the warm sector of the front. Also, a θe front at the middle level of the southern rain band and the cold front favor the release of instable energy to enhance the rainstorm. The southern and northern fronts approach each other and the two rain belts merge into one.
A SENSITIVITY SIMULATION ABOUT CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES OF TYPHOON CHANCHU
LIN Wen-shi, WU Jian-bin, LI Jiang-nan, LIANG Xu-dong, FANG Xing-qin, XU Sui-shan
2010, 16(4): 390-401.
Abstract(1618) PDF [1580KB](1787)
Abstract:
With the Reisner-2 bulk microphysical parameterization of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–CU.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–CNCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5), this paper investigates the microphysical sensitivities of Typhoon Chanchu. Four different microphysical sensitivity experiments were designed with an objective to evaluate their respective impacts in modulating intensity forecasts and microphysics budgets of the typhoon. The set of sensitivity experiments were conducted that comprised (a) a control experiment (CTL), (b) NEVPRW from which evaporation of rain water was suppressed, (c) NGP from which graupel was taken, and (d) NMLT from which melting of snow and graupel was removed. We studied the impacts of different cloud microphysical processes on the track, intensity and precipitation of the typhoon, as well as the kinematics, thermodynamics and vertical structural characteristics of hydrometeors in the inner core of the typhoon. Additionally, the budgets of the cloud microphysical processes in the fine domain were calculated to quantify the importance of each microphysical process for every sensitivity experiment. The primary results are as follows: (1) It is found that varying cloud microphysics parameters produce little sensitivity in typhoon track experiments. (2) The experiment of NGP produces the weakest storm, while the experiment of NMLT produces the strongest storm, and the experiment of NEVPRW also produces stronger storms than CTL. (3) Varying parameters of cloud microphysics have obvious impacts on the precipitation, kinematics, and thermodynamics of the typhoon and the vertical structural characteristics of hydrometeors in the typhoon’s inner core. (4) Most budgets of cloud microphysics in NMLT are larger than in CTL, while they are 20%–C60% smaller in NEVPRW than in CTL.
OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS OF SEA SURFACE WIND OVER THE QIONGZHOU STRAIT
XU Xiang-chun, XIN Ji-wu, LIANG Guo-feng, XING Xu-huang, CHEN You-long, XIE Han-sheng
2010, 16(4): 402-408.
Abstract(1401) PDF [231KB](1506)
Abstract:
The spatial variation and diurnal fluctuation of sea surface wind over the Qiongzhou Strait were described using verified datasets from automatic weather stations on board a ferry, buoys, and on the coast. Results are as follows: (1) On average, sea surface wind speed is 3–C4 m/s larger over the Qiongzhou Strait than in the coastal area. Sea surface wind speeds of 8.0 m/s or above (on Beaufort scale five) in the coastal area are associated with speeds 5–C6 m/s greater over the surface of the Qiongzhou Strait. (2) Gust coefficients for the Qiongzhou Strait decrease along with increasing wind speeds. When coastal wind speed is less than scale five, the average gust coefficient over the sea surface is between 1.4 and 1.5; when wind speed is equal to scale five or above, the average gust coefficient is about 1.35. (3) In autumn and winter, the diurnal differences of average wind speed and wind consistency over the strait are less than those in the coastal area; when wind speed is 10.8 m/s (scale six) or above, the diurnal difference of average wind speed decreases while wind consistency increases for both the strait and the coast.
EVOLUTION OF LIQUID WATER CONTENT IN A SEA FOG CONTROLLED BY A HIGH-PRESSURE PATTERN
LI Xiao-na, HUANG Jian, SHEN Shuang-he, LIU Shou-dong, LU Wei-hua
2010, 16(4): 409-416.
Abstract(1231) PDF [357KB](1227)
Abstract:
On March 16–C17, 2008, a sea fog occurred in Dianbai in the west of Guangdong Province and was accompanied by a high-pressure synoptic system. Using comprehensive observation datasets, this study analyzes the evolution of liquid water content during this sea fog and investigates the relationships between liquid water content and the average diameters and count densities of fog droplets, air temperature, wind speed and turbulence exchanges. The main results are presented as follows. (1) The sea fog showed a quasi-periodic oscillation characteristic, i.e., it developed, disappeared and then developed again. (2) During the sea fog, the number of fog droplets changed significantly while the changes in average diameter of the fog droplets were relatively small. The development and disappearance of the sea fog correlated significantly with the fog droplet numbers. (3) The air-cooling mechanism played a significant role in sea fog formation and development. However, the influences of this mechanism were not evident during fog persistence. (4) During sea fog formation, weak turbulence exchanges were helpful for fog formation. During sea fog development and persistence, liquid water content increased when turbulence exchanges weakened, and vice versa. The changes in turbulence exchanges were closely related to the quasi-periodic oscillations observed in sea fog presence.