基于GRAPES热带区域数值天气预报模式研究进展

Authors: ZHONG Shui-xin, CHEN Zi-tong, XU Dao-sheng, DAI Guang-feng, MENG Wei-guang, ZHANG Cheng-zhong, ZHANG Yan-xia, WU Kai-xin, FENG Ye-rong, CHEN De-hui, XUE Ji-shan

作      者: 钟水新, 陈子通, 徐道生, 戴光丰, 蒙伟光, 张诚忠, 张艳霞, 吴凯昕, 冯业荣, 陈德辉, 薛纪善

                                   图 华南区域中心9-3-1模式预报系统范围（填色为地形高度，单位km）

       This review summarizes the general developments of the operational mesoscale model system based on the Global / Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Monsoon Model (GRAPES-TMM) at the Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center. GRAPES-TMM consists of the Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System for the South China Sea (TRAMS, a typhoon model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km), the Mesoscale Atmospheric Regional Model System (MARS, 3km) and the fine-scale Rapid Update Cycling (RUC, 1km) forecasting system. The main advances of model dynamical core and physical processes are summarized, including the development of the 3D reference atmosphere scheme, the coupling scheme between dynamics and model physics, the calculation of nonlinear terms by fractional steps, the gravity wave drag scheme induced by sub-grid orography and a simplified model for land- surface scheme. The progress of model applications is reviewed and evaluated. The results show that the updated 9-3-1 forecasting system provides an overall improved performance on the weather forecasting in south China, especially for typhoon-genesis and typhoon-track forecasting as well as short-range weather forecasting. Capabilities and limitations as well as the future development of the forecasting system are also discussed.

Highlights

文章亮点：

本文系统回顾了基于GRAPES热带区域数值天气预报模式研究进展，包括南海台风模式预报系统（TRAMS，水平分辨率为9km），华南中尺度模式预报系统（水平分辨率为3km）和广东高分辨快速循环更新预报系统（水平分辨率为1km），概括了华南新一代数值预报模式（9-3-1）系统的动力框架、物理过程研发以及业务系统检验和预报效果评估等进展，指出基于自主研发的三维参考大气廓线技术、GRAPES预估-修正方案、动力过程和物理过程耦合技术，以及地形参数化方案技术、改进对流参数化技术和简化陆面过程方案等模式物理过程改进研发，有效提高了GRAPES模式预报的精度和预报性能。

通过华南区域数值天气预报模式系统业务评估对比可知，南海台风模式和华南中尺度模式预报系统预报水平逐年提高，南海台风模式路径和强度预报误差逐年降低，且可提前约1-4天有效预报台风生成，预报范围包括全国及南海海域，东至西太平洋关岛，西至印度洋。新一代华南中尺度模式3km预报误差显著降低，华南高分辨逐12分钟快速循环更新1km模式预报系统有效支撑了广东省短临天气预报。华南新一代数值预报模式（9-3-1）系统为“一带一路”经济带建设及地区气象预报等提供了有力的科技支撑和重要的参考价值。

For full text, please visit (全文链接): https://jtm.itmm.org.cn/en/article/doi/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2020.043

Citation (引用): ZHONG Shui-xin, CHEN Zi-tong, XU Dao-sheng, et al. A review on GRAPES-TMM operational model system at Guangzhou Regional Meteorological Center [J]. J Trop Meteor, 2020, 26(4): 495-504, https://doi/org/10.46267/j.1006-8775.2020.043.