NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE EFFECTS OF TWO MODEL INITIALIZATION SCHEMES ON RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE 2008 FLOODING SEASON

WANG Ye-hong; PENG Ju-xiang; ZHAO Yu-chun

Abstract:

In this paper, based on heavy rain numerical forecast model AREM (Advanced Regional Eta Model), two different initialization schemes, LAPS and GRAPES-3DVAR, are used to run assimilation experiments of AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR with the same data source (NCEP forecast field, surface data and radio-soundings) during the period from 21 May to 30 July 2008 to investigate the effect of the two initialization schemes on the rainfall simulation. The result suggests that: (1) the forecast TS score by the AREM-LAPS is higher than that by the AREM-3DVAR for rainfall in different areas, at different valid time and with different intensity, especially for the heavy rain, rainstorm and extremely heavy rain; (2) the AREM-3DVAR can generally simulate the average rainfall distribution, but the forecast area is smaller and rainfall intensity is weaker than the observation, while the AREM-LAPS significantly improves the forecast; (3) the AREM-LAPS gives a better forecast for the south-north shift of rainfall bands and the rainfall intensity variation than the AREM-3DVAR; (4) the AREM-LAPS can give a better reproduction for the daily change in the mean-rainfall-rate of the main rain band, and rainfall intensity changes in the eastern part of Southwest China, the coastal area in South China, the middle-lower valleys of Yangtze river, the Valleys of Huaihe river, and Shandong peninsula, with the rainfall intensity roughly close to the observation, while the rainfall intensity simulated by the AREM-3DVAR is clearly weaker than the observation, especially in the eastern part of Southwest China; and (5) the comparison verification between the AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR for more than 10 typical rainfall processes in the summer of 2008 indicates that the AREM-LAPS gives a much better forecast than AREM-3DVAR in rain-band area, rainfall location and intensity, and in particular, the rainfall intensity forecast is improved obviously.

Get Citation+

WANG Ye-hong, PENG Ju-xiang, ZHAO Yu-chun. NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE EFFECTS OF TWO MODEL INITIALIZATION SCHEMES ON RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE 2008 FLOODING SEASON [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2014, 20(3): 251-266.

Export:

Article Metrics

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE EFFECTS OF TWO MODEL INITIALIZATION SCHEMES ON RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE 2008 FLOODING SEASON

Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research, Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administration, Wuhan 430074 China

Rev Recd Date: 2014-04-29

Abstract: In this paper, based on heavy rain numerical forecast model AREM (Advanced Regional Eta Model), two different initialization schemes, LAPS and GRAPES-3DVAR, are used to run assimilation experiments of AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR with the same data source (NCEP forecast field, surface data and radio-soundings) during the period from 21 May to 30 July 2008 to investigate the effect of the two initialization schemes on the rainfall simulation. The result suggests that: (1) the forecast TS score by the AREM-LAPS is higher than that by the AREM-3DVAR for rainfall in different areas, at different valid time and with different intensity, especially for the heavy rain, rainstorm and extremely heavy rain; (2) the AREM-3DVAR can generally simulate the average rainfall distribution, but the forecast area is smaller and rainfall intensity is weaker than the observation, while the AREM-LAPS significantly improves the forecast; (3) the AREM-LAPS gives a better forecast for the south-north shift of rainfall bands and the rainfall intensity variation than the AREM-3DVAR; (4) the AREM-LAPS can give a better reproduction for the daily change in the mean-rainfall-rate of the main rain band, and rainfall intensity changes in the eastern part of Southwest China, the coastal area in South China, the middle-lower valleys of Yangtze river, the Valleys of Huaihe river, and Shandong peninsula, with the rainfall intensity roughly close to the observation, while the rainfall intensity simulated by the AREM-3DVAR is clearly weaker than the observation, especially in the eastern part of Southwest China; and (5) the comparison verification between the AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR for more than 10 typical rainfall processes in the summer of 2008 indicates that the AREM-LAPS gives a much better forecast than AREM-3DVAR in rain-band area, rainfall location and intensity, and in particular, the rainfall intensity forecast is improved obviously.

HTML

Reference (30)

[1]	YU Ru-cong. The design of the limited area numerical weather prediction model with steep mountains [J]. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 1989, 13(2): 145-158.
[2]	YU Ru-cong. Two-step shape-preserving advection scheme [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 1994, A11 (4): 479-490.
[3]	YU Ru-cong. Application of a shape-preserving advection scheme to the moisture equation in an E-grid regional forecast model [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 1995, 12(1): 13-19.
[4]	YU Ru-cong, XUE Ji-shan, XU You-ping, et al. An advanced regional Eta-coordinate numerical heavy-rain prediction model (AREM) system (AREMS) [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2004: 45-49 (in Chinese).
[5]	GONG Ying, WANG Ye-hong, LAI An-wei. Evaluation and analysis of rain prediction effect of three models in Southwest in 2008 [J]. Plateau Meteor., 2010, 29(6): 1441-1451 (in Chinese).
[6]	YE Cheng-zhi, PAN Zhi-xiang, Cheng Rui, et al. The numerical research of the primary mechanism of the offing reinforcement of typhoon Rananim based on AREM [J]. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 2007, 65(2): 208-220 (in Chinese).
[7]	LI Jun, WANG Ming-huan, GONG Ying, et al. Precipitation verifications to an ensemble prediction system based on AREM [J]. Torr. Rain Disast., 2010,29 (1): 30-37 (in Chinese).
[8]	LI Jun, DU Jun, WANG Ming-huan, et al. Precipitation verifications to an ensemble prediction system using two initial perturbation schemes based on AREM [J]. J. Trop. Meteor., 2010, 26(6): 733-742 (in Chinese).
[9]	ZHAO Yu-chun, WANG Ye-hong. Numerical study on the effect of topography upon “6?22” heavy rain in eastern Hubei [J]. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 2004, 62(Suppl.): 19-27 (in Chinese).
[10]	WANG Ye-hong, WANG Zhi-bin. A test for real-time precipitation forecast during 2002-flood season with AREM model [J]. Meteor. Mon., 2005, 31(2): 17-22 (in Chinese).
[11]	ZHANG Hua, XUE Ji-shan, ZHUANG Shi-yu, et al. Ideal experiments of GRAPES three-dimensional variational data assimilation system [J]. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 2004, 62(1): 31-41 (in Chinese).
[12]	ZHAO Ying, WANG Bin. Numerical experiments for typhoon Dan incorporating AMSU-A retrieved data with 3DVM [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 2008, 25(4): 692-703 (in Chinese).
[13]	MCGINLEY J A, ALBERS S C, STAMUS P A. Local data assimilation and analysis for nowcasting [J]. Adv. Space Res., 1992, 12(7): 179-188.
[14]	ALBERS S C, MCGINLEY J A, BIRKENHUER D A, et al. The local analysis and prediction system (LAPS): Analysis of clouds, precipitation and temperature [J]. Wea. Forecast., 1996, 11(3): 273-287.
[15]	LIU Zhi-xiong, DAI Ze-jun, PENG Ju-xiang, et al. Mechanism analysis of a local strong hail based on LAPS [J]. Torr. Rain Disast., 2009, 28(4): 313-320 (in Chinese).
[16]	ZHOU Hou-fu, GUO Pin-wen, ZHAI Jing, et al. Application of LAPS analysis field in rainstorm mesoscale analysis [J]. Plateau Meteor., 2010, 29(2): 461-470 (in Chinese).
[17]	CHEN Jia-rong, HUANG Wei-peng, WANG Wen-he, et al. Review of LAPS nowcasting system's forecasts in 2006 Mei-Yu and typhoon season [C]// Proc. 2007 Cross-Strait Meteorological Science and Technology Workshop. 2007: 114-120 (in Chinese).
[18]	JIAN Guo-ji, MCGINLEY J A. Evaluation of a short-range forecast system on quantitative precipitation forecasts associated with tropical cyclones of 2003 near Taiwan [J]. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 2005, 83: 657-681.
[19]	SNOOK J S, CRAM J M, SCHMIDT J M. LAPS/RAMS, A nonhydrostatic mesoscale numerical modeling system configured for operational use [J]. Tellus, 1995, 47A: 864-875.
[20]	SHAW B L, THALER E R, SZOKE E J. Operational evaluation of the LAPS?MM5 "hot start" local forecast model[C]. 18th Conf. on Wea. Anal. and Forecast., Ft. Lauderdale: Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2001: 160-164.
[21]	ETHERTON B, SANTOS P. Sensitivity of WRF Forecasts for South Florida to Initial Conditions [J]. Wea. Forecast., 2008, 23: 725-740.
[22]	LI Hong-li, CUI Chun-guang, WANG Zhi-bin. Scientific designs, functions and applications of LAPS [J]. Torr. Rain Disast., 2009, 28(1): 64-70 (in Chinese).
[23]	LI Hong-li, WAN Rong, XIE You-cai. Application of ground-based GPS water vapor in LAPS [J]. J. Trop. Meteor., 2010, 26(6): 702-709 (in Chinese).
[24]	LI Guo-jing, XU You-ping, CHENG Wei, et al. Doppler radar data assimilation sensitivity experiment on a heavy rain event [J]. Torr. Rain Disast., 2009, 28(2): 97-103 (in Chinese).
[25]	WANG Yu. Verification of NMC subjective and objective precipitation prediction during the main flood season in 2002 [J]. Meteor. Mon., 2003, 29(5): 21-25 (in Chinese).
[26]	WANG Yu, YAN Zhi-hui. Effect of different verification schemes on precipitation verification and assessment conclusion [J]. Meteor. Mon., 2007, 33(12): 53-61 (in Chinese).
[27]	WANG Ye-hong, ZHAO Yu-chun, ZHANG Bing. Verifications of precipitation forecasts from advanced AREMS during 2003 flood season [J]. J. Trop. Meteor., 2005, 21(6): 597-604 (in Chinese).
[28]	GONG Ying. Evaluation and analysis of the rainfall prediction of AREM in flood season of 2007 [J]. Torr. Rain Disast., 2007, 26(4): 372-380 (in Chinese).
[29]	YANG Jing-an, MENG Ying-jie. Main heavy rain process in China during May to September in 2008 [J]. Torr. Rain Disast., 2008, 27(4): 378-382 (in Chinese).
[30]	YANG Jing-an, MENG Ying-jie. Main heavy rain process in China during May to September in 2008 (continue) [J]. Torr. Rain Disast., 2008, 28(1): 92-95 (in Chinese).

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE EFFECTS OF TWO MODEL INITIALIZATION SCHEMES ON RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE 2008 FLOODING SEASON

Abstract:

References

Get Citation+

Share Article

Article Metrics

Proportional views

Manuscript History

Online:

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com