CLIMATE PREDICTION EXPERIMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS FREQUENCY USING THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION FORECAST BY A COUPLED GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL

JIA Xiao-long; CHEN Li-juan; LUO Jing-jia

Abstract:

Based on an analysis of the relationship between the tropical cyclone genesis frequency and large-scale circulation anomaly in NCEP reanalysis, large-scale atmosphere circulation information forecast by the JAMSTEC SINTEX-F coupled model is used to build a statistical model to predict the cyclogenesis frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. The SINTEX-F coupled model has relatively good prediction skill for some circulation features associated with the cyclogenesis frequency including sea level pressure, wind vertical shear, Intertropical Convergence Zone and cross-equatorial air flows. Predictors derived from these large-scale circulations have good relationships with the cyclogenesis frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. A multivariate linear regression (MLR) model is further designed using these predictors. This model shows good prediction skill with the anomaly correlation coefficient reaching, based on the cross validation, 0.71 between the observed and predicted cyclogenesis frequency. However, it also shows relatively large prediction errors in extreme tropical cyclone years (1994 and 1998, for example).

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JIA Xiao-long, CHEN Li-juan, LUO Jing-jia. CLIMATE PREDICTION EXPERIMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS FREQUENCY USING THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION FORECAST BY A COUPLED GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2014, 20(2): 103-111.

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CLIMATE PREDICTION EXPERIMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS FREQUENCY USING THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION FORECAST BY A COUPLED GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL

1. National Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 China 2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044

Rev Recd Date: 2014-03-21

Abstract: Based on an analysis of the relationship between the tropical cyclone genesis frequency and large-scale circulation anomaly in NCEP reanalysis, large-scale atmosphere circulation information forecast by the JAMSTEC SINTEX-F coupled model is used to build a statistical model to predict the cyclogenesis frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. The SINTEX-F coupled model has relatively good prediction skill for some circulation features associated with the cyclogenesis frequency including sea level pressure, wind vertical shear, Intertropical Convergence Zone and cross-equatorial air flows. Predictors derived from these large-scale circulations have good relationships with the cyclogenesis frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. A multivariate linear regression (MLR) model is further designed using these predictors. This model shows good prediction skill with the anomaly correlation coefficient reaching, based on the cross validation, 0.71 between the observed and predicted cyclogenesis frequency. However, it also shows relatively large prediction errors in extreme tropical cyclone years (1994 and 1998, for example).

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CLIMATE PREDICTION EXPERIMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS FREQUENCY USING THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION FORECAST BY A COUPLED GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL

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