CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IMPACTING A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN SOUTHERN FUJIAN AND ESTIMATE OF MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

ZHANG Rong-yan; LI Ling; GAO Jian-yun; YOU Li-jun; WEN Ming-zhang

Abstract:

Based on tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1949 to 2008 and following the Gumbe–CI method, Pearson-Ⅲ method and determinacy method, this article estimates the possible minimum central pressure of TCs affecting southern Fujian where a nuclear power will be located. Results show that the observed minimum central pressure of TCs agrees well with the results determined with the methods above and there is little difference between them (the minimum central pressure is 867.4 hPa and 868.1 hPa, respectively, in a 1,000-yr return period). Established with the theory of atmospheric dynamics, the determinacy method yields a result of 867.28 hPa/1000 years, only a little smaller than the result of the probability method. Because of randomicity in parameter adjustment with the Pearson-Ⅲ method whereas the determinacy method is theoretically solid and its estimates are the smallest of the three methods, it is therefore reasonable, for security and conservative concerns, to adopt the result determined with the determinacy method as the possible maximum intensity of TC (with the central pressure being 867.28 hPa in a 1,000-yr return period).

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ZHANG Rong-yan, LI Ling, GAO Jian-yun, et al. CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IMPACTING A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN SOUTHERN FUJIAN AND ESTIMATE OF MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2013, 19(2): 162-170.

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CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IMPACTING A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN SOUTHERN FUJIAN AND ESTIMATE OF MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

Fujian Climate Centre, Fuzhou 350001 China Meteorological Institute of Fujian, Fuzhou 350001 China

Specialized Meteorological Observatory of Fujian, Fuzhou 350001 China

Fujian Climate Centre, Fuzhou 350001 China

Received Date: 2011-10-25

Rev Recd Date: 2013-01-21

Abstract: Based on tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1949 to 2008 and following the Gumbe–CI method, Pearson-Ⅲ method and determinacy method, this article estimates the possible minimum central pressure of TCs affecting southern Fujian where a nuclear power will be located. Results show that the observed minimum central pressure of TCs agrees well with the results determined with the methods above and there is little difference between them (the minimum central pressure is 867.4 hPa and 868.1 hPa, respectively, in a 1,000-yr return period). Established with the theory of atmospheric dynamics, the determinacy method yields a result of 867.28 hPa/1000 years, only a little smaller than the result of the probability method. Because of randomicity in parameter adjustment with the Pearson-Ⅲ method whereas the determinacy method is theoretically solid and its estimates are the smallest of the three methods, it is therefore reasonable, for security and conservative concerns, to adopt the result determined with the determinacy method as the possible maximum intensity of TC (with the central pressure being 867.28 hPa in a 1,000-yr return period).

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CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IMPACTING A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN SOUTHERN FUJIAN AND ESTIMATE OF MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

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