TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAGES IN CHINA UNDER GLOBAL WARMING

ZHANG Jiao-yan; WU Li-guang; ZHANG Qiang

Abstract:

Over the past 25 years, an annual average of 6 to 7 tropical cyclones (TCs) made landfall on China mainland and Hainan Island with an average intensity of 29.9 m/s at landfall and maintained at least tropical storm intensity for 15.6 hours over land, leading to 505 deaths and 37 billion yuan in direct economic loss, which accounted for 0.4% of the annual GDP of China. Although there was little change in the overall landfall frequency, intensity at landfall and overland duration, the annual total direct economic loss increased significantly due to the rapid economic development over the past 25 years. Under global warming, the intensity of TCs that made landfall on Hainan decreased but the overland duration and frequency of TCs that made landfall on Fujian and Zhejiang increased. At the national and provincial levels, the ratio of the direct economic loss to GDP and casualties caused by landfall tropical cyclones decreased, suggesting the effectiveness of disaster prevention and reduction in China.

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ZHANG Jiao-yan, WU Li-guang, ZHANG Qiang. TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAGES IN CHINA UNDER GLOBAL WARMING [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2013, 19(2): 120-129.

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TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAGES IN CHINA UNDER GLOBAL WARMING

Guizhou Climate Center, Guiyang 550002 China Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climate and Resources, Guiyang 550002 China

Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing 210044 China

National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 China

Received Date: 2012-02-12

Rev Recd Date: 2013-02-08

Abstract: Over the past 25 years, an annual average of 6 to 7 tropical cyclones (TCs) made landfall on China mainland and Hainan Island with an average intensity of 29.9 m/s at landfall and maintained at least tropical storm intensity for 15.6 hours over land, leading to 505 deaths and 37 billion yuan in direct economic loss, which accounted for 0.4% of the annual GDP of China. Although there was little change in the overall landfall frequency, intensity at landfall and overland duration, the annual total direct economic loss increased significantly due to the rapid economic development over the past 25 years. Under global warming, the intensity of TCs that made landfall on Hainan decreased but the overland duration and frequency of TCs that made landfall on Fujian and Zhejiang increased. At the national and provincial levels, the ratio of the direct economic loss to GDP and casualties caused by landfall tropical cyclones decreased, suggesting the effectiveness of disaster prevention and reduction in China.

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Reference (22)

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TROPICAL CYCLONE DAMAGES IN CHINA UNDER GLOBAL WARMING

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