IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT KINDS OF ENSO ON LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CHINA

DU Yu-gang; SONG Jin-jie; TANG Jian-ping

Abstract:

Interannual variability of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in China during 1960-2010 is investigated. By using the method of partial least squares regression (PLS-regression), canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki are identified to be the factors that contribute to the interannual variability of landfalling TCs. El Niño Modoki years are associated with a greater-than-average frequency of landfalling TCs in China, but reversed in canonical El Niño years. Significant difference in genesis locations of landfalling TCs in China for the two kinds of El Niño phases occurs dominantly in the northern tropical western North Pacific (WNP). The patterns of low-level circulation anomalies and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies associated with landfalling TC genesis with different types of El Niño phases are examined. During canonical El Niño years, a broad zonal band of positive OLR anomalies dominates the tropical WNP, while the circulation anomalies exhibit a meridionally symmetrical dipole pattern with an anticyclonic anomaly in the subtropics and a cyclonic anomaly near the tropics. In El Niño Modoki years, a vast region of negative OLR anomalies, roughly to the south of 25°N with a strong large-scale cyclonic anomaly over the tropical WNP, provides a more favorable condition for landfalling TC genesis compared to its counterpart during canonical El Niño years. For more landfalling TCs formed in the northern tropical WNP in El Niño Modoki years, there are more TCs making landfall on the northern coast of China in El Niño Modoki years than in canonical El Niño years. The number of landfalling TCs is slightly above normal in canonical La Niña years. Enhanced convection is found in the South China Sea (SCS) and the west of the tropical WNP, which results in landfalling TCs forming more westward in canonical La Niña years. During La Niña Modoki years, the landfalling TC frequency are below normal, owing to an unfavorable condition for TC genesis persisting in a broad zonal band from 5°N to 25°N. Since the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in La Niña Modoki years is located in the westernmost region, TCs mainly make landfall on the south coast of China.

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DU Yu-gang, SONG Jin-jie, TANG Jian-ping. IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT KINDS OF ENSO ON LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CHINA [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2013, 19(1): 39-48.

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IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT KINDS OF ENSO ON LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CHINA

Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education, and School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 China

Received Date: 2011-09-30

Rev Recd Date: 2012-10-19

Abstract: Interannual variability of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in China during 1960-2010 is investigated. By using the method of partial least squares regression (PLS-regression), canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki are identified to be the factors that contribute to the interannual variability of landfalling TCs. El Niño Modoki years are associated with a greater-than-average frequency of landfalling TCs in China, but reversed in canonical El Niño years. Significant difference in genesis locations of landfalling TCs in China for the two kinds of El Niño phases occurs dominantly in the northern tropical western North Pacific (WNP). The patterns of low-level circulation anomalies and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies associated with landfalling TC genesis with different types of El Niño phases are examined. During canonical El Niño years, a broad zonal band of positive OLR anomalies dominates the tropical WNP, while the circulation anomalies exhibit a meridionally symmetrical dipole pattern with an anticyclonic anomaly in the subtropics and a cyclonic anomaly near the tropics. In El Niño Modoki years, a vast region of negative OLR anomalies, roughly to the south of 25°N with a strong large-scale cyclonic anomaly over the tropical WNP, provides a more favorable condition for landfalling TC genesis compared to its counterpart during canonical El Niño years. For more landfalling TCs formed in the northern tropical WNP in El Niño Modoki years, there are more TCs making landfall on the northern coast of China in El Niño Modoki years than in canonical El Niño years. The number of landfalling TCs is slightly above normal in canonical La Niña years. Enhanced convection is found in the South China Sea (SCS) and the west of the tropical WNP, which results in landfalling TCs forming more westward in canonical La Niña years. During La Niña Modoki years, the landfalling TC frequency are below normal, owing to an unfavorable condition for TC genesis persisting in a broad zonal band from 5°N to 25°N. Since the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in La Niña Modoki years is located in the westernmost region, TCs mainly make landfall on the south coast of China.

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IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT KINDS OF ENSO ON LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CHINA

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