A STUDY ON THE IMPACTS OF LATENT HEAT PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME ON PREDICTION SKILL OF ENSO WITH A SIMPLE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED

YUE Cai-jun; LU Wei-song; Xiaofan LI

Abstract:

This study revises Weare’s latent heat parameterization scheme and conducts an associated theoretic analysis. The revised Weare’s scheme is found to present potentially better results than Zebiak’s scheme. The Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model, initialized by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis of wind stress anomaly at 925 hPa, is referred to as the ZCW coupled model. The atmosphere models of the ZCW coupled model that use Zebiak’s scheme and the revised Weare’s scheme are referred to as the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, respectively. The coupled ocean-atmosphere models that use Zebiak’s scheme and the revised Weare’s scheme are referred to as the ZCW0and ZCWN coupled models, respectively. The simulations between the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models and between the ZCW0 and ZCWN coupled models are analyzed. The results include: (1) The evolution of heat, meridional wind and divergence anomalies simulated by similar ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, although the magnitudes of the former are larger than those of the latter; (2) The prediction skill of the Niño3 index from 1982 to 1999 by the ZCWN coupled model shows improvement compared with those by the ZCW0 coupled model; (3) The analysis of El Niño events in 1982/1983, 1986/1987, and 1997/1998 and La Niña events in 1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1998/2000 suggests that the ZCWN coupled model is better than the ZCW0 coupled model in predicting warm event evolution and cold event generation. The results also show the disadvantage of the ZCWN coupled model for predicting El Niño

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YUE Cai-jun, LU Wei-song, Xiaofan LI. A STUDY ON THE IMPACTS OF LATENT HEAT PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME ON PREDICTION SKILL OF ENSO WITH A SIMPLE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2010, 16(1): 10-19.

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A STUDY ON THE IMPACTS OF LATENT HEAT PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME ON PREDICTION SKILL OF ENSO WITH A SIMPLE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED

Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration

Abstract: This study revises Weare’s latent heat parameterization scheme and conducts an associated theoretic analysis. The revised Weare’s scheme is found to present potentially better results than Zebiak’s scheme. The Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model, initialized by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis of wind stress anomaly at 925 hPa, is referred to as the ZCW coupled model. The atmosphere models of the ZCW coupled model that use Zebiak’s scheme and the revised Weare’s scheme are referred to as the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, respectively. The coupled ocean-atmosphere models that use Zebiak’s scheme and the revised Weare’s scheme are referred to as the ZCW0and ZCWN coupled models, respectively. The simulations between the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models and between the ZCW0 and ZCWN coupled models are analyzed. The results include: (1) The evolution of heat, meridional wind and divergence anomalies simulated by similar ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, although the magnitudes of the former are larger than those of the latter; (2) The prediction skill of the Niño3 index from 1982 to 1999 by the ZCWN coupled model shows improvement compared with those by the ZCW0 coupled model; (3) The analysis of El Niño events in 1982/1983, 1986/1987, and 1997/1998 and La Niña events in 1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1998/2000 suggests that the ZCWN coupled model is better than the ZCW0 coupled model in predicting warm event evolution and cold event generation. The results also show the disadvantage of the ZCWN coupled model for predicting El Niño

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A STUDY ON THE IMPACTS OF LATENT HEAT PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME ON PREDICTION SKILL OF ENSO WITH A SIMPLE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED

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