THE APPLICATION OF ASSIMILATED AIRCRAFT DATA IN SIMULATING A HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTH CHINA IN JUNE 2005

Abstract:

Regular and irregular observational data are used to analyze and simulate a torrential rain over the south of China on 18 - 24 June 2005. Since the regular data cannot depict the rainfall system fully,GRAPES model is used to simulate this process. Different data are assimilated for 12 hours by its simulating system and different analysis data are obtained. In order to analyze how well the model forecast has been improved with the addition of assimilated aircraft data, these different analysis data are used as the first-guess data to conduct two control numerical simulation tests. From these tests, it is proved that the model that adds aircraft assimilation data can simulate the main region of precipitation, which is more consistent with the observed precipitation than the model that does not, and that the accuracy rate is also improved. These numerical simulation tests not only show that it is necessary and capable to improve the modeling of this torrential rain process by using aircraft data, but also lays the foundation for forecasting heavy rains in the south of China based on aircraft data.