APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION

ZHANG Gen-sheng; FEI Jian-fang; HUANG Xiao-gang; LU Long

Abstract:

The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model, and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct some numerical simulating experiments. The results of No.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial field have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea. Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.

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ZHANG Gen-sheng, FEI Jian-fang, HUANG Xiao-gang, et al. APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2006, 12(2): 179-185.

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APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science & Technology

The 4th unit of Garrison No.92528

Abstract: The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model, and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct some numerical simulating experiments. The results of No.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial field have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea. Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.

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APPLICATION OF BDA SCHEME IN TYPHOON TRACK PREDICTION

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