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Abstract:
Using the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), the evolution regularity of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong are analyzed. The main periods of yearly topical cyclones landing in Guangdong are found at 8 and quasi-3 years, and in the west of Pearl River Mouth are 12 and quasi-2 years to the west of Pearl River Mouth. The northwest Pacific that topical cyclones are generated is divided into 8 areas, and the SeaSurface Temperature (SST) in each area is analyzed using SSA. The main periods of NINO-west are 8 and 3 years, and those of the warm pool are 12 and 2 years, respectively. This may be the physical reason for the generation tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong. By combining the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) with SSA (SSAMEM), the yearly variation trend of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong and the Pearl River Mouth are forceast, and the results are good. The method can be used in operational short-range climate forecast.
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