THE OBJE CTIVE ANALOGUE PREDICTION MODEL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK WITH COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT

Abstract:

An objective analogue prediction model for tropical cyclone (TC) track is put forward that comprehensively assesses the environmental field. With the parameters of the tropical cyclone and environmental field at initial and future time, objective analogue criteria are set up in the model. Analogous samples are recognized by comprehensive assessment to historical TC cases for similarity with multivariate criteria,using non-linear analogue indexes especially defined for the purpose. When the historical tracks are coordinateconverted and weighted with reference to analogue indexes,forecast tracks are determined. As shown in model verification and forecast experiments, the model has forecasting skill.