ON THE PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL AND INFLUENCE ON SOUTHERN CHINA USING MONTHLY OLR ANOMALIES FOR PRIME SUMMER

Abstract:

With the OLR data, the landfall and activity of tropical cyclones (TC) in southern China over a 20-year period (1975~1994) are studied. The result shows that the variation of the monthly anomalous OLR is somewhat teleconnected with the TC activity in southern China. The former is used to predict short-term climate for the latter over months with frequent or no TC influence. To some extent, the relationship between the TC activity in southern China and the monthly mean OLR anomalies is dependent on the climatological location of the subtropical high in northwestern Pacific region.