CALCULATION OF BASIC ENVIRONMENTAL GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AND STATISTICAL STUDY ON TC TRACK AND ITS DEVIATION

Abstract:

Using the T63L16 analysis data with the resolution of 1.875–w1.875 degree of latitude and longitude obtained from National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the real central position information of tropical cyclone (referred to as TC hereafter) numbered by NMC, the basic environmental geostrophic flow at 126 time levels of 25 TCs in 1996 are calculated. The vertical distribution features of the flows are analyzed. Besides, the deviation of real TC tracks from the flows (referred as steering deviation hereafter, namely, the deviation between the real central position of TC and the position calculated according to the steering flow) is also investigated. The result shows that the steering deviation would be different if the domain used to calculate the steering flow is different. The present paper obtains the optimum domain size to calculate the steering flow. It is found that the steering deviation is related to the velocity of steering flow and the initial latitude and intensity of TC itself, and that TC motion has relationship with the vertical shear structure of environmental geostrophic flow. The result also shows that the optimum steering flow is the deep-layer averaged basic flow from 1000 hPa to 200 hPa. Having the knowledge of these principle and features would help make accurate forecast of TC motion.