PREDICTION OF ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF AFFECTING TROPICAL CYCLONE USING THE PRODUCTS OF A HYBRID COUPLEDAIR-SEA MODEL

LI Yong-ping; LIANG Xu-dong; DENG Zhi-ying

Abstract:

Better correlation exists between the activity of tropical cyclones affecting East China and Shanghai and the concurrent signals of SSTA in tropical Pacific. In an attempt to justify this statistic finding, a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system is established to optimize the initial fields of a hybrid air-sea coupled model. The prediction skill of tropical SSTA is improved. Long-term statistical models for predicting annual TC frequency affecting East China area and Shanghai city are developed based on 37-year products of this model and the forecast trials have achieved satisfactory results in 1998 and 1999.

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LI Yong-ping, LIANG Xu-dong, DENG Zhi-ying. PREDICTION OF ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF AFFECTING TROPICAL CYCLONE USING THE PRODUCTS OF A HYBRID COUPLEDAIR-SEA MODEL [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2001, 7(1): 63-68.

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PREDICTION OF ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF AFFECTING TROPICAL CYCLONE USING THE PRODUCTS OF A HYBRID COUPLEDAIR-SEA MODEL

Shanghai Typhoon Institute

Abstract: Better correlation exists between the activity of tropical cyclones affecting East China and Shanghai and the concurrent signals of SSTA in tropical Pacific. In an attempt to justify this statistic finding, a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system is established to optimize the initial fields of a hybrid air-sea coupled model. The prediction skill of tropical SSTA is improved. Long-term statistical models for predicting annual TC frequency affecting East China area and Shanghai city are developed based on 37-year products of this model and the forecast trials have achieved satisfactory results in 1998 and 1999.

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PREDICTION OF ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF AFFECTING TROPICAL CYCLONE USING THE PRODUCTS OF A HYBRID COUPLEDAIR-SEA MODEL

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