INTENSITY INDEX OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON AND ITS VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS

Abstract:

The region of south China is sometimes subject to major climatic catastrophes in winter. To have a clear understanding, the time in which extremely severe cold months occur in the south China wintertime over the past 45 years are determined and characteristics of the 500-hPa geopotential fields and SST fields are studied for the simultaneous and preceding 6-month periods. Similarity exists in the 500-hPa geopotential fields between each current severely cold month, with the geopotential pattern of being high in the north, but low in the south, of Asian-Pacific region and meridional circulation developing. The work presents anomalies of the months with significant differences in the 500-hPa geopotential field of the previous periods. The SSTA is continuous in the distribution from each extremely severe cold winter month back to the 6 months leading up to it for the region of south China while the SST pattern is of El Niño in January and the preceding 1 ~ 6 months for equatorial eastern Pacific but of La Niña in February and December. It is concluded that the prediction of severely cold winter months are possible with the use of the geopotential field at 500 hPa and the SST fields for the months ahead of the target time.