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Article >  Journal of Tropical Meteorology  > 1999 >  5(2): 189-198

A GENERALIZED CANONICAL MIXED REGRESSION MODEL FOR ENSO PREDICTION WITH ITS EXPELMENT

  • Naming Institute of Meteorology Naming 210044 China

  • National Climate Center of China, Beijing 100081 China

Funding:

  • A scheme is proposed for predicting NINO-region SST in terms of a generalized canonical mixedregression model based on principal component canonical correlation analysis(PC-CCA). and into the scheme are introduced such techniques as EEOF, PRESS criterion and consensus prediction. By optimizing physicalfactors and selecting optimal model parameters, experiments were made successful in predicting the LINO SST index for 1 to 4 seasons to follow. The scheme is shown to be stable in operation and its total technical level compares well with that of the model published in NOAA/NWS/NCEP CPC Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. butthe number of factors needed in our scheme is much fewer than that for the CPC's model in dealing with the sameproblems. This makes it possible to establish an operational ENSO monitoring system in China.
  • [1] BARNSTON A G, ROPELEWSICI C F, 1992. Prediction of ENSO episodes using CCA [J]. J.Climate, 5: 1316-1345.
    [2] DING Yu-guo, JIANG Zhi-hong, 1996. Study on canonical autoregression prediction of meteorloeical element fields [J]. Acta. Meteor.Sin., 10(1):41-51
    [3] NOAA/NWS/NCEP, 1997. Climate Diagnostics Bulletin [R], 3.
    [4] PENLANLD C T M, 1993. Prediction of Nino3 sea surface temperature using linear inverse modeling [J]. J. climale. 6: 1067-1076.
    [5] XU J S, STORCH H, 1990. Principal oscillation patterns-predictionof state of ENSO [J] J.Climate, 3: 1316-1429.
    [6] YAO Di-rong et al., 1992. A stepwise algorithm of selecting predictors following PRESS criterion(in Chinese)[J]. Sci. Atmos. Sin., 16(2): 129-135.
    [7] ZEBIAK S E, CANE M A, 1987. A model EI Niño-Southern Oscillation [J]. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115: 2262-2278.
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JIANG Zhi-hong, DING Yu-guo, ZAI Pan-mao. A GENERALIZED CANONICAL MIXED REGRESSION MODEL FOR ENSO PREDICTION WITH ITS EXPELMENT [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1999, 5(2): 189-198.
JIANG Zhi-hong, DING Yu-guo, ZAI Pan-mao. A GENERALIZED CANONICAL MIXED REGRESSION MODEL FOR ENSO PREDICTION WITH ITS EXPELMENT [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1999, 5(2): 189-198.
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 08 September 1998
    Manuscript revised: 07 December 1998
    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
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    A GENERALIZED CANONICAL MIXED REGRESSION MODEL FOR ENSO PREDICTION WITH ITS EXPELMENT

    • Naming Institute of Meteorology Naming 210044 China
    • National Climate Center of China, Beijing 100081 China
    • Received Date: 1998-09-08
    • Rev Recd Date: 1998-12-07

    Abstract: A scheme is proposed for predicting NINO-region SST in terms of a generalized canonical mixedregression model based on principal component canonical correlation analysis(PC-CCA). and into the scheme are introduced such techniques as EEOF, PRESS criterion and consensus prediction. By optimizing physicalfactors and selecting optimal model parameters, experiments were made successful in predicting the LINO SST index for 1 to 4 seasons to follow. The scheme is shown to be stable in operation and its total technical level compares well with that of the model published in NOAA/NWS/NCEP CPC Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. butthe number of factors needed in our scheme is much fewer than that for the CPC's model in dealing with the sameproblems. This makes it possible to establish an operational ENSO monitoring system in China.

    JIANG Zhi-hong, DING Yu-guo, ZAI Pan-mao. A GENERALIZED CANONICAL MIXED REGRESSION MODEL FOR ENSO PREDICTION WITH ITS EXPELMENT [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1999, 5(2): 189-198.
    Citation: JIANG Zhi-hong, DING Yu-guo, ZAI Pan-mao. A GENERALIZED CANONICAL MIXED REGRESSION MODEL FOR ENSO PREDICTION WITH ITS EXPELMENT [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1999, 5(2): 189-198.
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