EXPERIMENTS WITH SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION MODELS ON SSTA OVER THE NINO OCEANIC REGION

Ding Yuguo; Jiang Zhihong; Zhu Yanfeng

Abstract:

Predictions of averaged SST monthly anomalous series for Nino 1-4 regions in the context of auto-adaptive filter are made using a model combining the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and auto-regression (AR). The results have shown that the scheme is efticient in forward forecaning of the strong ENSO event in 1997-1998, it is of high reliability in retrospective forecasting of three corresponding historical strong ENSO events. It is seen that the scheme has stable skill and large accuracy for experiments of both independent samples and real cases.With modifications, the SSA-AR scheme is expected to become an efficient model in routine predictions of ENSO.

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Ding Yuguo, Jiang Zhihong, Zhu Yanfeng. EXPERIMENTS WITH SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION MODELS ON SSTA OVER THE NINO OCEANIC REGION [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1999, 5(1): 1-8.

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EXPERIMENTS WITH SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION MODELS ON SSTA OVER THE NINO OCEANIC REGION

Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, 210044

Received Date: 1997-09-08

Rev Recd Date: 1998-06-10

Abstract: Predictions of averaged SST monthly anomalous series for Nino 1-4 regions in the context of auto-adaptive filter are made using a model combining the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and auto-regression (AR). The results have shown that the scheme is efticient in forward forecaning of the strong ENSO event in 1997-1998, it is of high reliability in retrospective forecasting of three corresponding historical strong ENSO events. It is seen that the scheme has stable skill and large accuracy for experiments of both independent samples and real cases.With modifications, the SSA-AR scheme is expected to become an efficient model in routine predictions of ENSO.

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Reference (9)

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[5]	Jiang Zhihong, Ding Yuguo, 1998. Experiments with seasonal forecast of SST over ENSO regions based on BP-CCA. Paper collections on climatic research(5). Beijing: China Meteorological Press.
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EXPERIMENTS WITH SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION MODELS ON SSTA OVER THE NINO OCEANIC REGION

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