-
Abstract:
A predictive model for 24-120 h track of the tropical cyclone over the South ChinaSea is set upusing the predictors of CLIPER and with reference to those of EOF and CCA. This EOF-and CCA-basedmodel is compared with dependent and independent samples in veritring forecasts'Analpees appltwg themethods to 500-hPa geopotential heights have shown that the CCA method is able toconcentrate moreoriginal information of variable fleld that has the best global correlation withtropical cyclone track andthus reduces more efficiently error arisen in forecast,despite that can0nicaldistribution of weighted vari-able coefficients derived by it is less well-defined or smoothed of a spacialpattern as is done by eigenvec-tor in the EOF method. The verification indicates a certain degree of skill in both track predictive model,though better results are yielded in the CCA-based one, whose mean vector errorare 159.27, 314.84,524.12, 813.03, and 987.12 km, respectively for periods of 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h. The modelmakes an objective approach for prediction of short-and medium-range track of tropical cyclone in theSouth China Sea.
-
References
|
[1]
|
Alan R Shaffer, Russel E Elsberry. 1982. A statistical climatological tropical cyclone track prediction technique using an EOF representation of the synoptic forcing. Mon. Weo. Rev.,110: 1945-1959. |
|
[2]
|
Shapito L J, Neumann C J, 1989. On the structure and orientation of grid systems for the statistical prediction of tropical cyclone motion. Mon. Wea. Rev.,112: 188-199. |
|
[3]
|
Keenan T D, 1985. Statistical forecasting of tropical cyclone movement in the Australian region. Guart. J. R. Met. Soc.,111: 603-615. |
|
[4]
|
James E Peak,Russell L Elsberry, 1985. Prediction of tropical cyclone turning and acceleration using empirical orthogonal function representations. Mon. Wea. Rev.,114: 156-164. |
|
[5]
|
James E Peak,William E Wilson,Russel L Elsberry, et al.,1986. Forecasting tropical cyclone motion using empirical orthogonal function representations of the environmetal wind fields. Mon. Wea. Rev.,114: 2466-2976. |
|
[6]
|
Thomas B S,Johnny C L Chan,Russell L Elsberry, 1987. Further applications of empirical orthogonal function of wind field for tropical cyclone motion studies. Mon. Wea. Rev.,115: 1225-1237. |
|
[7]
|
Harry R Glahn,1968. Canonical correlation and its relationship to discriminant analysis and multiple regression. J. Atmos. Sci.,25: 23-31. |
|
[8]
|
Zhu Shengming,Qu Xueshi, 1988. Progress in techniques of statistical interpretation of numerical predicted products,Beijing: Meteorological Press,1-200.(in Chinese) |
|
[9]
|
Barnett T P,Preisendorfer R,1987. Origins and levels of months and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperatures by canonical correlation analysis. Mon. Wca. Rcv.,115: 1825-1850. |
|
[10]
|
Chen Xiaoyuan,Yu Shanxian,Li Hanhui,1987. Application of canonical correlation analysis in the prediction of typhoon track. Journal of Troyical Meteorology,3: 15-22.(in Chinese) |
|
[11]
|
Hu Jifu,Chang Meigui,Huang Liwen et al.,1994. The CLIPER model for prediction of South China Sea typhoon,Bulletin of oceans and lakes. No. 2, 191-201.(in Chinese) |
|
[12]
|
Xie Lingjuan,1989. Climatological persistent model for prediction of typhoon track in the South China Sea. Ocean forecasting,6: 20-30.(in Chinese) |
-
-
-
粤公网安备 4401069904700002号
DownLoad: