PREDICTION OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA USING SSM/I DATA

ZHANG Chao; SHU Hai-long; ZHANG Qing-hong; WANG Lei

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2012.02.013

Abstract:

This paper proposes a method for predicting the development of tropical disturbance over the South China Sea (SCS) based on the total latent heat release (TLHR) derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) satellite observations. A threshold value of daily mean TLHR (3×1014 W) for distinguishing the non-developing and developing tropical disturbances is obtained based on the analysis for 25 developing and 43 non-developing tropical disturbances over the SCS during 2000 to 2005. If the mean TLHR within 500 km of a disturbance on the latest day and its daily mean TLHR during previous life are both greater than 3×1014 W, the disturbance will be a developing one in the future. Otherwise, it is a non-developing one. A real-time testing prediction of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS was conducted for the years 2007 and 2008 using this threshold value of TLHR. We find that the method is successful in detecting the development of 80% of all tropical disturbances over the SCS in 2007 and 2008.

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ZHANG Chao, SHU Hai-long, ZHANG Qing-hong, et al. PREDICTION OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA USING SSM/I DATA [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2012, 18(2): 242-248, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2012.02.013

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PREDICTION OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA USING SSM/I DATA

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 China Research Institute of Renewable Power, China Datang Corporation Renewable Power Co., Limited, Beijing 100053 China

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 China

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275 China

Received Date: 2011-09-30

Rev Recd Date: 2012-02-15

Abstract: This paper proposes a method for predicting the development of tropical disturbance over the South China Sea (SCS) based on the total latent heat release (TLHR) derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) satellite observations. A threshold value of daily mean TLHR (3×1014 W) for distinguishing the non-developing and developing tropical disturbances is obtained based on the analysis for 25 developing and 43 non-developing tropical disturbances over the SCS during 2000 to 2005. If the mean TLHR within 500 km of a disturbance on the latest day and its daily mean TLHR during previous life are both greater than 3×1014 W, the disturbance will be a developing one in the future. Otherwise, it is a non-developing one. A real-time testing prediction of tropical cyclogenesis over the SCS was conducted for the years 2007 and 2008 using this threshold value of TLHR. We find that the method is successful in detecting the development of 80% of all tropical disturbances over the SCS in 2007 and 2008.

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PREDICTION OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA USING SSM/I DATA

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