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Article >  Journal of Tropical Meteorology  > 2012 >  18(2): 127-134

DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATED TO DECAY PROCESS OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC

  • Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China

  • Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022 China

Funding:


doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2012.02.003

  • Intensity variation of tropical cyclones (TCs), especially that of coastal or landfalling TCs, is of great concern in current research. Most of the research papers, however, focus on intensification processes of TCs; only a few discuss decay processes in the lifetime of a TC. In the daily weather operation related to TCs, it is challenging when a TC weakens and/or disappears suddenly, because it brings more difficulties than the forecast of intensifying TCs does. Overestimation of a decaying landfalling TC would lead to over-preparation of defensive measures and result in “crying wolf” mentality with adverse effects. This study summarized physical mechanisms that dominate the decaying process of TCs and listed several possible dynamical factors: reduced level of air temperature, too large or too small speed, contraction of TC size amplification of TC's core, and lightning number in a TC.
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    [2] MUNDELL D B. Prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensification events [M]. AFIT/CI/CIA-90-104, M. S. thesis, Fort Collins: Colorado State Univ., 1990: 206.
    [3] TITLEY D W, ELSBERRY R L. Large intensity changes in tropical cyclones: a case study of supertyphoon Flo during TCM-90 [J]. Mon. Wea. Rev., 2000, 128: 3556-3573.
    [4] CHEN Lian-shou, MENG Zhi-yong. Advances in tropical cyclones in China over the past decade [J]. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 2001: 25(3): 420-432 (in Chinese).
    [5] KRISHNAMURTT T N, PATTNAIK S, STEFANOVA L, et al. The hurricane intensity issue [J]. Mon. Wea. Rev., 2005, 133: 1886-1911.
    [6] YU Yu-bin, YANG Chang-xian, YAO Xiu-ping. The vertical structure characteristics analysis on abrupt intensity change of tropical cyclone over the offshore of China [J]. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 2007, 32(5): 876-885.
    [7] HUANG Rong-cheng, LEI Xiao-tu. Comparative analysis of the influence of environment field on rapid intensifying and weakening of tropical cyclones over offshore waters of China[J]. J. Trop. Meteor., 2010, 26(2): 129-137.
    [8] WU Lian-yao, LEI Xiao-tu. Preliminary study of the scale variation on the impact of typhoon intensity [J]. J. Trop. Meteor., 2011, (in press).
    [9] LEI Xiao-tu, ZHANG Yi-jun, Ma Ming. The preliminary analysis of the lightning characteristics and the relationship between lightning and intensity of tropical cyclone in northwest Pacific [J]. Acta Oceanol. Sinica, 2009, 31(4): 29-38(in Chinese).
    [10] MOLINARI J, MOORE P K, IDONE V P, et al. Cloud to ground lightening in hurricane Andrew [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 1994: 99(8): 16665-16676.
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LEI Xiao-tu, TANG Jie, XU Xiao-lin, et al. DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATED TO DECAY PROCESS OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2012, 18(2): 127-134, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2012.02.003
LEI Xiao-tu, TANG Jie, XU Xiao-lin, et al. DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATED TO DECAY PROCESS OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2012, 18(2): 127-134, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2012.02.003
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    Manuscript received: 30 September 2011
    Manuscript revised: 15 February 2012
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    DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATED TO DECAY PROCESS OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC

    doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2012.02.003
    • Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China
    • Guangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanning 530022 China
    • Received Date: 2011-09-30
    • Rev Recd Date: 2012-02-15

    Abstract: Intensity variation of tropical cyclones (TCs), especially that of coastal or landfalling TCs, is of great concern in current research. Most of the research papers, however, focus on intensification processes of TCs; only a few discuss decay processes in the lifetime of a TC. In the daily weather operation related to TCs, it is challenging when a TC weakens and/or disappears suddenly, because it brings more difficulties than the forecast of intensifying TCs does. Overestimation of a decaying landfalling TC would lead to over-preparation of defensive measures and result in “crying wolf” mentality with adverse effects. This study summarized physical mechanisms that dominate the decaying process of TCs and listed several possible dynamical factors: reduced level of air temperature, too large or too small speed, contraction of TC size amplification of TC's core, and lightning number in a TC.

    LEI Xiao-tu, TANG Jie, XU Xiao-lin, et al. DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATED TO DECAY PROCESS OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2012, 18(2): 127-134, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2012.02.003
    Citation: LEI Xiao-tu, TANG Jie, XU Xiao-lin, et al. DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATED TO DECAY PROCESS OF OFFSHORE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2012, 18(2): 127-134, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2012.02.003
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