A STUDY OF THE WINTER-WINTER RECURRENCE MECHANISM OF THE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN EAST ASIA

Abstract:

In this study, the winter-summer-winter seasonal variation characteristics of the atmospheric temperature in northern East Asia (NEA) during the past 60 years are analyzed. The results revealed a type of new seasonal variation mechanism of temperature: winter-winter recurrence (WWR). This study initially discussed the formation mechanism of WWR from the angle of the relationship between the WWR and the atmospheric internal factors and external forcing. The main conclusions are summarized as follows: (1) The winter-summer-winter continuous variation of the AO anomaly index has consistent characteristics with the atmospheric variation of the WWR in the NEA, and their 60-year correlation coefficient reaches 0.43, passing the 95% significance level. It is indicated that the seasonal anomaly of the AO has a certain influence on the WWR; (2) Overall, the PDO maintains a negative phase in the negative WWR years, while it displays the opposite feature in the positive WWR years. The negative (positive) anomaly of PDO is favourable to the occurrence of sustainable low (high) temperatures in the NEA, and may be the important external driving factor for motivating the WWR in the NEA; (3) The binary regression, based on the PDO and AO indexes successfully reproduces the curve of TWWR-HG, which is significantly correlated with the WWR index TWWR, and can reproduce the time-height profile of the WWR characteristics from 400 to 1,000 hPa. Therefore, it is concluded that the WWR of the atmospheric temperatures in the NEA is the result of the combined action of the PDO and AO.