THE ABRUPT CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE NUMBER OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN THE MID-1990s

Abstract:

Based on the CMA tropical cyclone (TC) best track data as well as the reanalysis datasets from the NCEP/NCAR and NOAA, the variation characteristics of TC number from 1949 to 2013 over the western North Pacific (including the South China Sea) are examined. Notably, the time series of TC number exhibits a significant abrupt change from more to less around 1995. Comparative analysis indicates that the environmental factors necessary to TC formation also change significantly around the mid-1990s. After 1995, accompanying with anomalous warm sea surface temperature (SST) in western equatorial Pacific, a La Niña-like pattern in tropical Pacific appears obviously. However, compared with the period before 1995, the vertical upward movement decreases, vertical shear of tropospheric zonal wind increases, and sea level pressure (SLP) rises, all of which are unfavorable to TC formation and work together to make TC number reduce markedly after 1995. Furthermore, when the typical interannual more and less TCs years are selected in the two separate stages before and after 1995, the relative importance of oceanic and atmospheric environments in interannual TC generation is also investigated respectively. The results imply that the SST over the tropical Pacific exerts relatively important influence on TC formation before 1995 whereas the atmospheric circulation plays a more prominent role in the generation of TC after 1995.