SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIO

GU Cheng-lin; KANG Jian-cheng; YAN Guo-dong; CHEN Zhi-wei

doi:10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.S1.002

Abstract:

Utilizing the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Tokyo-Typhoon Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA RSMC TOKYO) best-track tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1951–C2014, variations in spatial and temporal characteristics of Northwest Pacific TC activity for a global warming scenario are discussed. The results suggest that since the early 1960s, there has been an overall decreasing trend in the frequency of occurrence, intensity, peak intensity, length of movement, and lifetime of TCs. However, global warming has led to a linearly increasing trend in TC activity in eastern Asia, which indicates that Northwest Pacific TC activity decreases, but the frequency of landfalls and intensity are likely strengthened. Therefore, the threat of TCs towards eastern Asia is enhanced. The increase in TC activity in eastern Asia is likely the result of a strengthened Walker circulation due to an increasing temperature gradient between the northwest Pacific Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The strengthening Walker circulation could increase the magnitude of the vertical wind shear, relative vorticity, and meridional wind shear of low-level easterlies near the equator in the tropical Northwest Pacific, which affects the spatial and temporal variations of TC activity in the Northwest Pacific.

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GU Cheng-lin, KANG Jian-cheng, YAN Guo-dong, et al. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIO [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2016, 22(S1): 15-23, https://doi.org/10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.S1.002

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SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIO

Urban Ecology and Environment Research Center, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234 China Jiamusi University Department of Resources and Environment, Faculty of Science, Jiamusi, Heilongjiang 154007 China

Rev Recd Date: 2016-04-13

Abstract: Utilizing the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Tokyo-Typhoon Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA RSMC TOKYO) best-track tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1951–C2014, variations in spatial and temporal characteristics of Northwest Pacific TC activity for a global warming scenario are discussed. The results suggest that since the early 1960s, there has been an overall decreasing trend in the frequency of occurrence, intensity, peak intensity, length of movement, and lifetime of TCs. However, global warming has led to a linearly increasing trend in TC activity in eastern Asia, which indicates that Northwest Pacific TC activity decreases, but the frequency of landfalls and intensity are likely strengthened. Therefore, the threat of TCs towards eastern Asia is enhanced. The increase in TC activity in eastern Asia is likely the result of a strengthened Walker circulation due to an increasing temperature gradient between the northwest Pacific Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The strengthening Walker circulation could increase the magnitude of the vertical wind shear, relative vorticity, and meridional wind shear of low-level easterlies near the equator in the tropical Northwest Pacific, which affects the spatial and temporal variations of TC activity in the Northwest Pacific.

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SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIO

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