DECADAL CHANGES IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES ASSOCIATED WITH MADDEN-CJULIAN OSCILLATION

ZHAO Wei; WEI Zhi-gang; ZHAO Hai-kun; ZHENG Zhi-yuan; WANG Ji

doi:10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.02.001

Abstract:

This study focuses on the decadal variability of tropical cyclones (TC) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) and how these changes are related to the Madden–CJulian Oscillation (MJO). It was done with the help of the Real-time Multivariate MJO index from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, TC data from the Joint Typhoon Warming Center best track datasets, and daily and monthly datasets from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis center. The results show that the TC frequency in the WNP exhibited a statistically significant decrease during 1998–C2010 compared to during 1979–C1997. The decrease in TC frequency in the WNP mainly occurred during MJO active phases (i.e., phases 4, 5, 6, and 7). Further investigation of the climate background and the propagation differences of the MJO between 1979–C1997 and 1998–C2010 was performed. The La Niña-like tropical sea surface temperature cooling caused stronger Walker circulation and thus induced unfavorable atmosphere conditions for WNP TC genesis including a low-level easterly anomaly, a negative relative vorticity anomaly, an increase in sea-level pressure, and stronger vertical wind shear. Moreover, shortening of the MJO cycle, decline in the duration of the active phases in the WNP, and easterly anomaly and shrinkage of the convection area during MJO active phases may also partly explain the decadal variation of TC.

Get Citation+

ZHAO Wei, WEI Zhi-gang, ZHAO Hai-kun, et al. DECADAL CHANGES IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES ASSOCIATED WITH MADDEN-CJULIAN OSCILLATION [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2016, 22(2): 109-117, https://doi.org/10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.02.001

Export:

Article Metrics

DECADAL CHANGES IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES ASSOCIATED WITH MADDEN-CJULIAN OSCILLATION

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 China

Rev Recd Date: 2016-02-05

Abstract: This study focuses on the decadal variability of tropical cyclones (TC) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) and how these changes are related to the Madden–CJulian Oscillation (MJO). It was done with the help of the Real-time Multivariate MJO index from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, TC data from the Joint Typhoon Warming Center best track datasets, and daily and monthly datasets from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis center. The results show that the TC frequency in the WNP exhibited a statistically significant decrease during 1998–C2010 compared to during 1979–C1997. The decrease in TC frequency in the WNP mainly occurred during MJO active phases (i.e., phases 4, 5, 6, and 7). Further investigation of the climate background and the propagation differences of the MJO between 1979–C1997 and 1998–C2010 was performed. The La Niña-like tropical sea surface temperature cooling caused stronger Walker circulation and thus induced unfavorable atmosphere conditions for WNP TC genesis including a low-level easterly anomaly, a negative relative vorticity anomaly, an increase in sea-level pressure, and stronger vertical wind shear. Moreover, shortening of the MJO cycle, decline in the duration of the active phases in the WNP, and easterly anomaly and shrinkage of the convection area during MJO active phases may also partly explain the decadal variation of TC.

HTML

Reference (28)

[1]	CHEN Guang-hua, HUANG Rong-hui. Dynamical effects of low frequency oscillation on tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific and the physical mechanisms [J]. Chin J Atmos Sci, 2009, 33(2):205-214 (in Chinese).
[2]	ZHAO H K, WU L G, ZHOU W. Assessing the influence of the ENSO on tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific [J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2010, 27(6): 1 361-1 371.
[3]	GRAY W M. Hurricanes. Their formation, structure, and likely role in the tropical circulation [M]// Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, SHAW D B, Branknall: Royal Meteorology Society, 1979:155-218.
[4]	ZHAO H K. A downscaling technique to simulate changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity between two types of El Ni?o events [J]. Theoret Appl Climatol, 2014, 1-15.
[5]	ZHAO H K, WU L G. Inter-decadal shift of the prevailing tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific and its mechanism study [M]. Meteorol Atmos Phys, 2014, 125: 89-101.
[6]	MATSUURA T, YUMOTO M, IIZUKA S. A mechanism of interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific [J]. Clim Dyn, 2003, 21: 105-117.
[7]	LIU K S, CHAN J L. Inactive period of western north pacific tropical cyclone activity in 1998―2011 [J]. J Climate, 2013, 26(8): 2 614-2 630.
[8]	HSU P C, CHU P S, MURAKAMI H, et al. An abrupt decrease in the late-season typhoon activity over the western north pacific [J]. J Climate, 2014, 27(11): 4 296-4 312.
[9]	MALONEY E D, HARTMANN D L. Modulation of Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes by the Madden-Julian oscillation [J]. J Climate, 2000, 13(9): 1 451-1 460.
[10]	CHANEY J G ELIESSSON A. On the Growth of the hurricane depression [J]. Atoms. Sci, 1964, 21: 68-75.
[11]	NAKAZAWA T. Tropical super clusters within intraseasonal variations over the western Pacific [J]. J Meteorol Soc Japan, 1988, 66: 823-839.
[12]	ZHAO H K, JIANG X, WU L. Modulation of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis by the Intraseasonal Variability [J]. J Meteorol Soc Japan, 2015, 91(1): 81-97.
[13]	ZHAO H K, YOSHIDA R, RYUJI G B. Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis associated with large-scale patterns [J]. J Appl Meteorol Climatol, 2015, 54: 1 413-1 429.
[14]	LIEBMANN B, HENDONH H, GLICK J D. The relationship between tropical cyclones of the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Madden-Julian Oscillation [J]. J Meteorol Sci Japan, 1994, 72(3): 401-412.
[15]	HALL J D, MATTHEWS A J, KAROLY D J. The modulation of tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region by the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 2001, 129(12): 2 970-2 982.
[16]	CAO Xi, CHEN Guang-hua, HUANG Rong-hui, et al. The Intensity Variation of the Summer Intertropical Convergence Zone in Western North Pacific and Its Impact on Tropical Cyclones [J]. J Trop Meteorol, 2014, 20(3): 193-201.
[17]	CAO X, HUANG P, CHEN G H, et al. Modulation of western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis by intraseasonal oscillation of the ITCZ: A statistical analysis [J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2012, 29(4): 744-754.
[18]	HUANG Rong-hui, CHEN Guang-hua. Research on interannual variation sof tracks of tropical cyclones over Northwest Pacific and their physical mechanism [J]. Acta Meteorol Sinica, 2007, 65(5): 683-694 (in Chinese).
[19]	LOVETT R A. Atlantic Ocean key to global-warming pause changing currents could be driving heat into the deep sea [J]. Nature News (21 August 2014). doi:10.1038/nature. 2014, 15755.
[20]	KOSAKA Y, XIE S P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling [J]. Nature, 2013, 501: 403-417.
[21]	ZHOU L, SOBEL AH, MURTUGUDDE R. Kinetic Energy Budget for the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a Multi-scale Framework [J]. J Climate, 2012, 25: 5 386-5 403.
[22]	WHEELER M C, HENDON H. An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an Index for monitoring and prediction [J]. Mon Wea Rev, 2004, 132(8): 1 917-1 932.
[23]	SIMMS J W. A composite study of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and northeasterly cold-surges during the northern winter monsoon [D]. Master Thesis: University of South Carolina, 1994, 1-116..
[24]	ZHAO H K, RAGA G B. The influence of large-scale circulations on the extremely inactive tropical cyclone activity in 2010 over the Western North Pacific [J]. Atmosfera, 2014, 27(4): 353-365.
[25]	ZHAO H K, CHU P S. Exploratory analysis of extremely low tropical cyclone activity during the late-season of 2010 and 1998 over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea [J]. J Adv Modeling Earth Syst.2014, 06(4): 1 141-1 153.
[26]	YOSHIYUKIK, XIE S-P. Decadal change in interseasonal variability over the South China Sea[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2003, 36(6): L06810.
[27]	PAN Jing, LI Chong-yin, SONG Jie. The modulation of Madden Julian Oscillation on typhoons in the northwestern Pacific Ocean [J]. Chin J Atmos Sci, 2010, 34(6): 1 059-1 070 (in Chinese).
[28]	TAM C Y, LAU N C. Modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation by ENSO: Inferences from observations and GCM simulations [J]. J Meteorol Soc Japan, 2005, 83(5): 727-743.

DECADAL CHANGES IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES ASSOCIATED WITH MADDEN-CJULIAN OSCILLATION

Abstract:

References

Get Citation+

Share Article

Article Metrics

Proportional views

Manuscript History

Online:

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com