EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE

BAI Li-na; WANG Yuan

doi:10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.01.002

Abstract:

The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006. First, the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared. The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200–C800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear. High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs. TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity. A vertical shear of 8–C9 m/s (9–C10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h (48 h). A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h. Finally, a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression, which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear. Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.

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BAI Li-na, WANG Yuan. EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2016, 22(1): 11-18, https://doi.org/10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.01.002

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EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE

Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 China School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 China

Rev Recd Date: 2015-09-25

Abstract: The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006. First, the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared. The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200–C800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear. High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs. TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity. A vertical shear of 8–C9 m/s (9–C10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h (48 h). A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h. Finally, a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression, which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear. Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.

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EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE

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