2023 Vol. 29, No. 3
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2023, 29(3): .
Abstract:
2023, 29(3): 277-300.
doi: 10.3724/j.1006-8775.2023.021
Abstract:
This study investigated the impacts of increasing model resolutions and shortening forecast lead times on the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) for heavy-rainfall events over south China during the rainy seasons in 2013–2020. The control experiment, where the analysis-forecast cycles run with model resolutions of about 3 km, was compared to a lower-resolution experiment with model resolutions of about 9 km, and a longer-term experiment activated 12 hours earlier. Rainfall forecasting in the presummer rainy season was significantly improved by improving model resolutions, with more improvements in cases with stronger synoptic-scale forcings. This is partially attributed to the improved initial conditions (ICs) and subsequent forecasts for low-level jets (LLJs). Forecasts of heavy rainfall induced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) benefited from increasing model resolutions in the first 6 hours. Forecast improvements in rainfall due to shortening forecast lead times were more significant at earlier (1–6 h) and later (7–12 h) lead times for cases with stronger and weaker synoptic-scale forcings, respectively, due to the area- and case-dependent improvements in ICs for nonprecipitation variables. Specifically, significant improvements mainly presented over the northern South China Sea for low-level onshore wind of weak-forcing cases but over south China for LLJs of strong-forcing cases during the presummer rainy season, and over south China for all the nonprecipitation variables above the surface during the TC season. However, some disadvantages of higher-resolution and shorter-term forecasts in QPFs highlight the importance of developing ensemble forecasting with proper IC perturbations, which include the complementary advantages of lower-resolution and longer-term forecasts.
This study investigated the impacts of increasing model resolutions and shortening forecast lead times on the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) for heavy-rainfall events over south China during the rainy seasons in 2013–2020. The control experiment, where the analysis-forecast cycles run with model resolutions of about 3 km, was compared to a lower-resolution experiment with model resolutions of about 9 km, and a longer-term experiment activated 12 hours earlier. Rainfall forecasting in the presummer rainy season was significantly improved by improving model resolutions, with more improvements in cases with stronger synoptic-scale forcings. This is partially attributed to the improved initial conditions (ICs) and subsequent forecasts for low-level jets (LLJs). Forecasts of heavy rainfall induced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) benefited from increasing model resolutions in the first 6 hours. Forecast improvements in rainfall due to shortening forecast lead times were more significant at earlier (1–6 h) and later (7–12 h) lead times for cases with stronger and weaker synoptic-scale forcings, respectively, due to the area- and case-dependent improvements in ICs for nonprecipitation variables. Specifically, significant improvements mainly presented over the northern South China Sea for low-level onshore wind of weak-forcing cases but over south China for LLJs of strong-forcing cases during the presummer rainy season, and over south China for all the nonprecipitation variables above the surface during the TC season. However, some disadvantages of higher-resolution and shorter-term forecasts in QPFs highlight the importance of developing ensemble forecasting with proper IC perturbations, which include the complementary advantages of lower-resolution and longer-term forecasts.
2023, 29(3): 301-311.
doi: 10.3724/j.1006-8775.2023.022
Abstract:
This study evaluated the forecast skill of CMA-GD 3 km and CMA-GD 1 km with hourly Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) for five monsoon precipitation events in South China from 2018 to 2020, using the fraction skill score (FSS) of the neighborhood spatial verification method. The results revealed that, among the 24-lead-hour forecasts in CMA-GD 3 km, the FSS for the 0.1 mm precipitation threshold increased linearly with the lead time from 3 to 1 hour, while there was no significant improvement in other lead times. For the 5 mm precipitation threshold, the forecast skill was highest for the latest 1-hour lead time, while the FSS showed slight variation between lead times of 24 hours and 8 hours. The FSS for 10 mm and 20 mm precipitation thresholds were similar to that of 5 mm, with the difference that the best score occurred at the 2-hour lead time. Among the 6-lead-hour forecasts in CMA-GD 1 km, the forecasts of the latest 1-hour lead time were the best choices for four precipitation thresholds. When comparing CMA-GD 3 km and CMA-GD 1 km, it was found that CMA-GD 3 km had better skill for forecasts of 0.1 mm and 5 mm precipitation at 2-hour and 1-hour lead times, while CMA-GD 1 km had better skill for all other forecasts, including the forecast of 20 mm precipitation nearly all lead hours (including 3- to 6-hour, and 1-hour lead times). The results suggest that the increased resolution of the model may be beneficial for precipitation forecasts in South China, especially for short-duration heavy precipitation over a longer lead hours. However, the limited sample size of this study calls for further evaluation using more cases to validate the results′ generality.
This study evaluated the forecast skill of CMA-GD 3 km and CMA-GD 1 km with hourly Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) for five monsoon precipitation events in South China from 2018 to 2020, using the fraction skill score (FSS) of the neighborhood spatial verification method. The results revealed that, among the 24-lead-hour forecasts in CMA-GD 3 km, the FSS for the 0.1 mm precipitation threshold increased linearly with the lead time from 3 to 1 hour, while there was no significant improvement in other lead times. For the 5 mm precipitation threshold, the forecast skill was highest for the latest 1-hour lead time, while the FSS showed slight variation between lead times of 24 hours and 8 hours. The FSS for 10 mm and 20 mm precipitation thresholds were similar to that of 5 mm, with the difference that the best score occurred at the 2-hour lead time. Among the 6-lead-hour forecasts in CMA-GD 1 km, the forecasts of the latest 1-hour lead time were the best choices for four precipitation thresholds. When comparing CMA-GD 3 km and CMA-GD 1 km, it was found that CMA-GD 3 km had better skill for forecasts of 0.1 mm and 5 mm precipitation at 2-hour and 1-hour lead times, while CMA-GD 1 km had better skill for all other forecasts, including the forecast of 20 mm precipitation nearly all lead hours (including 3- to 6-hour, and 1-hour lead times). The results suggest that the increased resolution of the model may be beneficial for precipitation forecasts in South China, especially for short-duration heavy precipitation over a longer lead hours. However, the limited sample size of this study calls for further evaluation using more cases to validate the results′ generality.
2023, 29(3): 312-323.
doi: 10.3724/j.1006-8775.2023.023
Abstract:
The interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) intensity and its mechanism are investigated in this study. The interannual variability of the low-level circulation of the SCSSM has experienced a significant interdecadal enhancement around the end of the 1980s, which may be attributed to the interdecadal changes in the evolution of the tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and their impacts on the SCSSM. From 1961 to 1989, the low-level circulation over the South China Sea is primarily affected by the SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean via the mechanism of Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence. While in 1990 to 2020, the impacts of the summer SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent and the equatorial central to eastern Pacific on the SCSSM are enhanced, via anomalous meridional circulation and Mastuno-Gill type Rossby wave atmospheric response, respectively. The above interdecadal changes are closely associated with the interdecadal changes in the evolution of El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The interdecadal variation of the summer SST anomalies in the developing and decaying phases of ENSO events enhances the influence of the tropical Indo-Pacific SST on the SCSSM, resulting in the interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the SCSSM.
The interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) intensity and its mechanism are investigated in this study. The interannual variability of the low-level circulation of the SCSSM has experienced a significant interdecadal enhancement around the end of the 1980s, which may be attributed to the interdecadal changes in the evolution of the tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and their impacts on the SCSSM. From 1961 to 1989, the low-level circulation over the South China Sea is primarily affected by the SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean via the mechanism of Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence. While in 1990 to 2020, the impacts of the summer SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent and the equatorial central to eastern Pacific on the SCSSM are enhanced, via anomalous meridional circulation and Mastuno-Gill type Rossby wave atmospheric response, respectively. The above interdecadal changes are closely associated with the interdecadal changes in the evolution of El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The interdecadal variation of the summer SST anomalies in the developing and decaying phases of ENSO events enhances the influence of the tropical Indo-Pacific SST on the SCSSM, resulting in the interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the SCSSM.
2023, 29(3): 324-336.
doi: 10.3724/j.1006-8775.2023.024
Abstract:
The long-term height-resolved wind trend in China under global warming still needs to be discovered. To fill this gap, in this paper we examined the climatology and long-term (1979–2021) trends of the wintertime wind speed at the near-surface and upper atmosphere in China based on long-term radiosonde measurements. At 700, 500, and 400 hPa, much higher wind speed was found over eastern China, compared with western China. At 300, 200, and 100 hPa, maximum wind speed was observed in the latitude zone of around 25–35°N. Furthermore, westerly winds dominated most parts of China between 20°N and 50°N at altitudes from 700 hPa to 100 hPa. A stilling was revealed for the near-surface wind from 1979–2003. From 2004 onward, the near-surface wind speed reversed from decreasing to increasing. This could be largely due to the joint impact of reduced surface roughness length, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and increased sensible heat flux in the ground surface. The decrease of AOD tended to reduce aerosol radiative forcing, thereby destabilizing the planetary boundary layer (PBL). By comparison, the wintertime wind in the upper atmosphere exhibited a significant monotonic upward trend, albeit with varying magnitude for different altitudes. In the upper troposphere, the wintertime maximum wind was observed along a westerly jet stream, with a pronounced upward trend within the zone approximately bounded by latitudes of 25–50°N, particularly above 500 hPa. This accelerating wind observed in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere could be closely associated with the large planetary-scale meridional temperature trend gradient. Besides, the direction for the wind at the near-surface and lower troposphere (925 and 850 hPa) exhibited a larger variance over the period 1979–2021, which could be associated with the strong turbulence of PBL caused by the heterogeneous land surface. For those pressure levels higher than 850 hPa, large wind directional variance was merely found to the south of 25 °N. The findings from long-term radiosonde measurements in winter over China shed light on the changes in wind speed on the ground and upper atmosphere under global warming from an observational perspective.
The long-term height-resolved wind trend in China under global warming still needs to be discovered. To fill this gap, in this paper we examined the climatology and long-term (1979–2021) trends of the wintertime wind speed at the near-surface and upper atmosphere in China based on long-term radiosonde measurements. At 700, 500, and 400 hPa, much higher wind speed was found over eastern China, compared with western China. At 300, 200, and 100 hPa, maximum wind speed was observed in the latitude zone of around 25–35°N. Furthermore, westerly winds dominated most parts of China between 20°N and 50°N at altitudes from 700 hPa to 100 hPa. A stilling was revealed for the near-surface wind from 1979–2003. From 2004 onward, the near-surface wind speed reversed from decreasing to increasing. This could be largely due to the joint impact of reduced surface roughness length, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and increased sensible heat flux in the ground surface. The decrease of AOD tended to reduce aerosol radiative forcing, thereby destabilizing the planetary boundary layer (PBL). By comparison, the wintertime wind in the upper atmosphere exhibited a significant monotonic upward trend, albeit with varying magnitude for different altitudes. In the upper troposphere, the wintertime maximum wind was observed along a westerly jet stream, with a pronounced upward trend within the zone approximately bounded by latitudes of 25–50°N, particularly above 500 hPa. This accelerating wind observed in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere could be closely associated with the large planetary-scale meridional temperature trend gradient. Besides, the direction for the wind at the near-surface and lower troposphere (925 and 850 hPa) exhibited a larger variance over the period 1979–2021, which could be associated with the strong turbulence of PBL caused by the heterogeneous land surface. For those pressure levels higher than 850 hPa, large wind directional variance was merely found to the south of 25 °N. The findings from long-term radiosonde measurements in winter over China shed light on the changes in wind speed on the ground and upper atmosphere under global warming from an observational perspective.
2023, 29(3): 337-346.
doi: 10.3724/j.1006-8775.2023.025
Abstract:
There is a continuous and relatively stable rainy period every spring in southern China (SC). This spring precipitation process is a unique weather and climate phenomenon in East Asia. Previously, the variation characteristics and associated mechanisms of this precipitation process have been mostly discussed from the perspective of seasonal mean. Based on the observed and reanalysis datasets from 1982 to 2021, this study investigates the diversity of the interannual variations of monthly precipitation in spring in SC, and focuses on the potential influence of the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The results show that the interannual variations of monthly precipitation in spring in SC have significant differences, and the correlations between each two months are very weak. All the interannual variations of precipitation in three months are related to a similar western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC), and the southwesterlies at the western flank of WNPAC bring abundant water vapor for the precipitation in SC. However, the WNPAC is influenced by tropical SST anomalies in different regions each month. The interannual variation of precipitation in March in SC is mainly influenced by the signal of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation, and the associated SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific regulate the WNPAC through the Pacific-East Asia (PEA) teleconnection. In contrast, the WNPAC associated with the interannual variation of precipitation in April can be affected by the SST anomalies in the northwestern equatorial Pacific through a thermally induced Rossby wave response. The interannual variation of precipitation in May is regulated by the SST anomalies around the western Maritime Continent, which stimulates the development of low-level anomalous anticyclones over the South China Sea and east of the Philippine Sea by driving anomalous meridional vertical circulation.
There is a continuous and relatively stable rainy period every spring in southern China (SC). This spring precipitation process is a unique weather and climate phenomenon in East Asia. Previously, the variation characteristics and associated mechanisms of this precipitation process have been mostly discussed from the perspective of seasonal mean. Based on the observed and reanalysis datasets from 1982 to 2021, this study investigates the diversity of the interannual variations of monthly precipitation in spring in SC, and focuses on the potential influence of the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The results show that the interannual variations of monthly precipitation in spring in SC have significant differences, and the correlations between each two months are very weak. All the interannual variations of precipitation in three months are related to a similar western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC), and the southwesterlies at the western flank of WNPAC bring abundant water vapor for the precipitation in SC. However, the WNPAC is influenced by tropical SST anomalies in different regions each month. The interannual variation of precipitation in March in SC is mainly influenced by the signal of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation, and the associated SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific regulate the WNPAC through the Pacific-East Asia (PEA) teleconnection. In contrast, the WNPAC associated with the interannual variation of precipitation in April can be affected by the SST anomalies in the northwestern equatorial Pacific through a thermally induced Rossby wave response. The interannual variation of precipitation in May is regulated by the SST anomalies around the western Maritime Continent, which stimulates the development of low-level anomalous anticyclones over the South China Sea and east of the Philippine Sea by driving anomalous meridional vertical circulation.
2023, 29(3): 347-358.
doi: 10.3724/j.1006-8775.2023.026
Abstract:
The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Radar Precipitation Feature (RPF) data are used to investigate the activities and properties of lightning and thunderstorms over a region including the Western Pacific, northern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea along with their adjacent lands. The lands feature significantly more frequent lightning flashes and thunderstorms than the oceans, especially the open oceans. The highest densities of lightning and thunderstorm occur over the Strait of Malacca and the southern foothills of the Himalayas. Over the ocean regions, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea are characterized by relatively frequent lightning and thunderstorm activities. Larger average spatiotemporal size and optical radiance of flashes can be found over the oceans; specifically, the offshore area features the most significant flash duration, and the open ocean area is characterized by the greatest flash length and optical radiance. The smallest average values of flash properties can be found over and around the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The oceanic thunderstorms tend to have a significantly larger horizontal extent than the continental thunderstorms, with the former and latter having the average area of the regions with radar reflectivity larger than 20 dBZ, generally over 7000 km2 and commonly below 6000 km2, respectively. The TP thunderstorms show the smallest horizontal extent. Meanwhile, the oceanic thunderstorms exhibit greater 20 dBZ but smaller 40 dBZ top heights than the continental thunderstorms. The average flash frequency and density of the oceanic thunderstorms are typically less than 5 fl min–1 and 0.3 fl 100 km–2 min–1, respectively; in contrast, the corresponding values of continental thunderstorms are greater. It is explored that the regions associated with strong convective thunderstorms are more likely to feature small-horizontal-extent and low-radiance flashes.
The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Radar Precipitation Feature (RPF) data are used to investigate the activities and properties of lightning and thunderstorms over a region including the Western Pacific, northern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea along with their adjacent lands. The lands feature significantly more frequent lightning flashes and thunderstorms than the oceans, especially the open oceans. The highest densities of lightning and thunderstorm occur over the Strait of Malacca and the southern foothills of the Himalayas. Over the ocean regions, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea are characterized by relatively frequent lightning and thunderstorm activities. Larger average spatiotemporal size and optical radiance of flashes can be found over the oceans; specifically, the offshore area features the most significant flash duration, and the open ocean area is characterized by the greatest flash length and optical radiance. The smallest average values of flash properties can be found over and around the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The oceanic thunderstorms tend to have a significantly larger horizontal extent than the continental thunderstorms, with the former and latter having the average area of the regions with radar reflectivity larger than 20 dBZ, generally over 7000 km2 and commonly below 6000 km2, respectively. The TP thunderstorms show the smallest horizontal extent. Meanwhile, the oceanic thunderstorms exhibit greater 20 dBZ but smaller 40 dBZ top heights than the continental thunderstorms. The average flash frequency and density of the oceanic thunderstorms are typically less than 5 fl min–1 and 0.3 fl 100 km–2 min–1, respectively; in contrast, the corresponding values of continental thunderstorms are greater. It is explored that the regions associated with strong convective thunderstorms are more likely to feature small-horizontal-extent and low-radiance flashes.
2023, 29(3): 359-369.
doi: 10.3724/j.1006-8775.2023.027
Abstract:
Tropical cyclone (TC) activities in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) peak in May during the pre-monsoon period, but the TC frequency shows obvious inter-annual variations. By conducting statistical analysis and dynamic diagnosis of long-term data from 1948 to 2016, the relationship between the inter-annual variations of Indian Ocean SST and NIO TC genesis frequency in May is analyzed in this paper. Furthermore, the potential mechanism concerning the effect of SST anomaly on TC frequency is also investigated. The findings are as follows: 1) there is a broadly consistent negative correlation between NIO TC frequency in May and SST in the Indian Ocean from March to May, with the key influencing area located in the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO); 2) the anomalies of SST in SWIO (SWIO-SST) are closely related to a teleconnection pattern surrounding the Indian Ocean, which can significantly modulate the high-level divergence, mid-level vertical motion and other related environmental factors and ultimately influence the formation of TCs over the NIO; 3) the increasing trend of SWIO-SST may play an essential role in the downward trend of NIO TC frequency over the past 69 years.
Tropical cyclone (TC) activities in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) peak in May during the pre-monsoon period, but the TC frequency shows obvious inter-annual variations. By conducting statistical analysis and dynamic diagnosis of long-term data from 1948 to 2016, the relationship between the inter-annual variations of Indian Ocean SST and NIO TC genesis frequency in May is analyzed in this paper. Furthermore, the potential mechanism concerning the effect of SST anomaly on TC frequency is also investigated. The findings are as follows: 1) there is a broadly consistent negative correlation between NIO TC frequency in May and SST in the Indian Ocean from March to May, with the key influencing area located in the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO); 2) the anomalies of SST in SWIO (SWIO-SST) are closely related to a teleconnection pattern surrounding the Indian Ocean, which can significantly modulate the high-level divergence, mid-level vertical motion and other related environmental factors and ultimately influence the formation of TCs over the NIO; 3) the increasing trend of SWIO-SST may play an essential role in the downward trend of NIO TC frequency over the past 69 years.
2023, 29(3): 370-384.
doi: 10.3724/j.1006-8775.2023.028
Abstract:
This study explores the use of the hierarchical ensemble filter to determine the localized influence of observations in the Weather Research and Forecasting ensemble square root filtering (WRF-EnSRF) assimilation system. With error correlations between observations and background field state variables considered, the adaptive localization approach is applied to conduct a series of ideal storm-scale data assimilation experiments using simulated Doppler radar data. Comparisons between adaptive and empirical localization methods are made, and the feasibility of adaptive localization for storm-scale ensemble Kalman filter assimilation is demonstrated. Unlike empirical localization, which relies on prior knowledge of distance between observations and background field, the hierarchical ensemble filter provides continuously updating localization influence weights adaptively. The adaptive scheme improves assimilation quality during rapid storm development and enhances assimilation of reflectivity observations. The characteristics of both the observation type and the storm development stage should be considered when identifying the most appropriate localization method. Ultimately, combining empirical and adaptive methods can optimize assimilation quality.
This study explores the use of the hierarchical ensemble filter to determine the localized influence of observations in the Weather Research and Forecasting ensemble square root filtering (WRF-EnSRF) assimilation system. With error correlations between observations and background field state variables considered, the adaptive localization approach is applied to conduct a series of ideal storm-scale data assimilation experiments using simulated Doppler radar data. Comparisons between adaptive and empirical localization methods are made, and the feasibility of adaptive localization for storm-scale ensemble Kalman filter assimilation is demonstrated. Unlike empirical localization, which relies on prior knowledge of distance between observations and background field, the hierarchical ensemble filter provides continuously updating localization influence weights adaptively. The adaptive scheme improves assimilation quality during rapid storm development and enhances assimilation of reflectivity observations. The characteristics of both the observation type and the storm development stage should be considered when identifying the most appropriate localization method. Ultimately, combining empirical and adaptive methods can optimize assimilation quality.
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