2018 Vol. 24, No. 1

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HORIZONTAL VORTICITY INDUCED BY VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERTICAL MOTION DURING A SQUALL LINE PROCESS
ZHAO Xiang-jun, DING Zhi-ying
2018, 24(1): 1-14. doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.001
Abstract:
The horizontal vorticity equation used in this study was obtained using the equations of motion in the pressure coordinate system without considering friction, to reveal its relationship with vertical shear. By diagnostically analyzing each term in the horizontal vorticity equation during a squall line process that occurred on 19 June 2010, we found that the non-thermal wind term had a negative contribution to the local change of upward movement in the low-level atmosphere, and that its impact changed gradually from negative to positive with altitude, which could influence upward movement in the mid- and upper-level atmosphere greatly. The contribution of upward vertical transport to vertical movement was the largest in the low-level atmosphere, but had negative contribution to the upper-level atmosphere. These features were most evident in the development stage of the squall line. Based on analysis of convection cells along a squall line, we found that in the process of cell development diabatic heating caused the subsidence of constant potential temperature surface and non- geostrophic motion, which then triggered strong convergence of horizontal acceleration in the mid-level atmosphere and divergence of horizontal acceleration in the upper-level atmosphere. These changes of horizontal wind field could cause a counterclockwise increment of the horizontal vorticity around the warm cell, which then generated an increase of upward movement. This was the main reason why the non-thermal wind term had the largest contribution to the strengthening of upward movement in the mid- and upper-level atmosphere. The vertical transport of large value of horizontal vorticity was the key to trigger convection in this squall line process.
INFLUENCE OF MODEL HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF RAMMASUN
WANG Chen-xi, ZENG Zhi-hua
2018, 24(1): 15-28. doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.002
Abstract:
We use the WRF (V3.4) model as the experimental model and select three horizontal resolutions of 15, 9, and 3km to research the influence of the model’s horizontal resolution on the intensity and structure of the super-strong typhoon Rammasun (1409) in 2014. The results indicate that the horizontal resolution has a very large impact on the intensity and structure of Rammasun. The Rammasun intensity increases as the horizontal resolution increases. When the horizontal resolution increases from 9km to 3km, the enhancement of intensity is more obvious, but the strongest intensity simulated by 3km horizontal resolution is still weaker than the observed strongest intensity. Along with the increase of horizontal resolution, the horizontal scale of the Rammasun vortex decreases, and the vortex gradually contracts toward its center. The vortex structure changes from loose to compact and deep. The maximum wind radius, thickness of the eye wall, and outward inclination of the eye wall with height decrease, and the wind in the inner core region, updraft motion along the eye wall, and strength of the warm core become stronger. Additionally, the pressure gradient and temperature gradient of the eye wall region increase, and the vortex intensity becomes stronger. When the horizontal resolution increases from 9km to 3km, the change in the Rammasun structure is much larger than the change when the horizontal resolution increases from 15km to 9km. When the model does not employ the method of convection parameterization, the Rammasun intensity simulated with 3km horizontal resolution is slightly weaker than the intensity simulated with 3km horizontal resolution when the Kain–CFritsch (KF) convection parameterization scheme is adopted, while the intensity simulated with 9km horizontal resolution is much weaker than the intensity simulated with 9km horizontal resolution when the KF scheme is adopted. The influence of the horizontal resolution on the intensity and structure of Rammasun is larger than the influence when the KF scheme is adopted.
EFFECTS OF A CLOUD FILTERING METHOD FOR FENGYUN-3C MICROWAVE HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURE SOUNDER MEASUREMENTS OVER OCEAN ON RETRIEVALS OF TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY
HE Qiu-rui, WANG Zhen-zhan, HE Jie-ying
2018, 24(1): 29-41. doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.003
Abstract:
For Microwave Humidity and Temperature sounder (MWHTS) measurements over the ocean, a cloud filtering method is presented to filter out cloud- and precipitation-affected observations by analyzing the sensitivity of the simulated brightness temperatures of MWHTS to cloud liquid water, and using the root mean square error (RMSE) between observation and simulation in clear sky as a reference standard. The atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles are retrieved using MWHTS measurements with and without filtering by multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural networks (ANN) and one- dimensional variational (1DVAR) retrieval methods, respectively, and the effects of the filtering method on the retrieval accuracies are analyzed. The numerical results show that the filtering method can improve the retrieval accuracies of the MLR and the 1DVAR retrieval methods, but have little influence on that of the ANN. In addition, the dependencies of the retrieval methods upon the testing samples of brightness temperature are studied, and the results show that the 1DVAR retrieval method has great stability due to that the testing samples have great impact on the retrieval accuracies of the MLR and the ANN, but have little impact on that of the 1DVAR.
A STUDY ON THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST REAL-TIME CORRECTION METHOD
GUO Rong, QI Liang-bo, GE Qian-qian, WENG Yong-yuan
2018, 24(1): 42-48. doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.004
Abstract:
Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36h.
A STUDY OF THE WINTER-WINTER RECURRENCE MECHANISM OF THE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN EAST ASIA
WANG Xiao-juan, QIAO Shao-bo, FENG Guo-lin
2018, 24(1): 49-59. doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.005
Abstract:
In this study, the winter-summer-winter seasonal variation characteristics of the atmospheric temperature in northern East Asia (NEA) during the past 60 years are analyzed. The results revealed a type of new seasonal variation mechanism of temperature: winter-winter recurrence (WWR). This study initially discussed the formation mechanism of WWR from the angle of the relationship between the WWR and the atmospheric internal factors and external forcing. The main conclusions are summarized as follows: (1) The winter-summer-winter continuous variation of the AO anomaly index has consistent characteristics with the atmospheric variation of the WWR in the NEA, and their 60-year correlation coefficient reaches 0.43, passing the 95% significance level. It is indicated that the seasonal anomaly of the AO has a certain influence on the WWR; (2) Overall, the PDO maintains a negative phase in the negative WWR years, while it displays the opposite feature in the positive WWR years. The negative (positive) anomaly of PDO is favourable to the occurrence of sustainable low (high) temperatures in the NEA, and may be the important external driving factor for motivating the WWR in the NEA; (3) The binary regression, based on the PDO and AO indexes successfully reproduces the curve of TWWR-HG, which is significantly correlated with the WWR index TWWR, and can reproduce the time-height profile of the WWR characteristics from 400 to 1,000 hPa. Therefore, it is concluded that the WWR of the atmospheric temperatures in the NEA is the result of the combined action of the PDO and AO.
COMPARISON OF PERSIANN AND TMPA DAILY PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER HUNAN PROVINCE OF CHINA
TAN De-quan, ZHANG Tian-yu, YANG Yu, YOU Ya-lei, YAN Guang-rong, YANG Zhi-jun
2018, 24(1): 60-70. doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.006
Abstract:
This study presented a detailed comparison of daily precipitation estimates from Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi -satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) over Hunan province of China from 1998 to 2014. The ground gauge observations are taken as the reference. It is found that overall TMPA clearly outperforms PERSIANN, indicating by better statistical metrics (including correlation coefficient, root mean square error and relative bias). For the geospatial pattern, although both products are able to capture the major precipitation features (e.g., precipitation geospatial homogeneity) in Hunan, yet PERSIANN largely underestimates the precipitation intensity throughout all seasons. In contrast, there is no clear bias tendency from TMPA estimates. Precipitation intensity analysis showed that both the occurrence and amount histograms from TMPA are closer to the gauge observations from spring to autumn. However, in the winter season PERSIANN is closer to gauge observation, which is likely due to the ground contamination from the passive microwave sensors used by TMPA.
INFLUENCE OF THE ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ON THE MIGRATION PHENOLOGY AND POPULATION DYNAMICS OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS (ST?L) IN CHINA
LIU Yao, BAO Yun-xuan, SUN Si-si, ZHENG Teng-fei, LU Ming-hong, XIE Xiao-jin, LIU Wan-cai
2018, 24(1): 71-81. doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.007
Abstract:
With the aim to examine variations in the migration phenology and population of N. lugens along with the advance/retreat of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and lay the foundation for further study on predicting the timing and location of N. lugens outbreak, correlation analysis and spatial analysis were applied for estimating the impact of the ASM and its related meteorological factors on the migration phenology and population of N. lugens in China in this paper. The ASM had a positive effect on the occurrence and outbreak of N. lugens. First, the first appearance date of N. lugens was consistent with seasonal advances of the northernmost location of the ASM, and the ASM provided the dynamic condition for the northward migration of N. lugens. Second, outbreak of N. lugens occurred in the area under the control of the ASM, and the ASM provided the survival condition for the population of N. lugens. Third, the population was positively related to the northernmost location of the ASM, θE (850hPa) and wind speed (850hPa). Particularly, the stronger southwest wind caused the date of the first, peak and last catches of N. lugens to turn up earlier than in the extremely years.
SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND VARIATION TRENDS OF HIERARCHICAL PRECIPITATION IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE OVER THE PAST 50 YEARS
LIU Xian-tong, ZHENG Teng-fei, WAN Qi-lin, YU Xin
2018, 24(1): 82-91. doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.008
Abstract:
The climatic characteristics of the precipitation in Guangdong province over the past 50 years were analyzed based on the daily rainfall datasets of 86 stations from 1961 to 2010. The rainfall was divided into five categories according to its intensity, and their spatiotemporal characteristics and variation trends were investigated. The annual rainfall amount was within 1,500 to 2,000 mm over most parts of Guangdong, but substantial differences of rainfall amount and rainy days were found among different parts of the province. There were many rainy days in the dry seasons (October to March), but the daily rainfall amounts are small. The rainy seasons (April to September) have not only many rainy days but also heavy daily rainfall amounts. The spatial distributions of light rainy days (1 mm 100 mm) are generally concentrated in three regions, Qingyuan, Yangjiang, and Haifeng/Lufeng. The average rainfall amount for rainy days increases form the north to the south of Guangdong, while decreasing as the rainfall intensity increases. The contributions from light, moderate and heavy rain to the total rainfall decreases form the north to the south. The annual rainy days show a decreasing trend in the past 50 years. The light rainy days decreased significantly while the heavy, rainstorm and downpour rainy days increased slightly. The annual total rainfall amount increased over the past 50 years, which was contributed by heavy, rainstorm and downpour rains, while the contribution from light and moderate rains decreased.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SUMMER LOW-FREQUENCY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND PROPAGATION OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION
SHEN Yu-yang, REN Hong-li, LI Wei-jing, ZHANG Yu-jie, ZUO Jin-qing
2018, 24(1): 92-101. doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.009
Abstract:
This study investigates the relationship between summer low-frequency rainfall over southern China and tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the atmosphere by examining systematically the propagation features of the tropical ISO in terms of focusing on five large-scale low-frequency rainfall regimes in summer over southern China. It is demonstrated that there is a close linkage between the five rainfall regimes over southern China and the northward propagation of the tropical ISO. The moist ISO signals, which influence the low-frequency rainfall events in different regions of southern China, mainly propagate northwestward from the tropical ocean to the southeast of China. The southeast China rainfall regime is intimately associated with the moist ISO signals propagating northwestward from the equatorial mid-western Pacific Ocean. For both the Yangtze River regime and South of Yangtze River regime, the moist ISO signals over the northern South China Sea show an evident northward propagation towards the Yangtze River region, and then propagate westward. It is further found that the interaction between the northward propagation of low-latitude ISO signals and the southward propagation of high-latitude ISO signals can also make a clear influence on the low-frequency rainfall in southern China. For the Southern China regime, the moist ISO signals show a significant northward propagation from the Philippines. Moreover, for the rainless regime, southern China is under dry ISO signals’ control, and the latter shows no clear propagation to southern China. This study may provide insights for the extended-range forecasting of summer rainfall in southern China.
PREDICTION AND UNCERTAINTY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA DURING 21ST CENTURY UNDER RCPS
LIANG Yu-lian, YAN Xiao-dong, HUANG Li, LU Hong, JIN Shao-fei
2018, 24(1): 102-110. doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.010
Abstract:
Based on integrated simulations of 26 global climate models provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), this study predicts changes in temperature and precipitation across China in the 21st century under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and analyzes uncertainties of the predictions using Taylor diagrams. Results show that increases of average annual temperature in China using three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are 1.87 °C, 2.88 °C and 5.51 °C, respectively. Increases in average annual precipitation are 0.124, 0.214, and 0.323 mm/day, respectively. The increased temperature and precipitation in the 21st century are mainly contributed by the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China. Uncertainty analysis shows that most CMIP5 models could predict temperature well, but had a relatively large deviation in predicting precipitation in China in the 21st century. Deviation analysis shows that more than 80% of the area of China had stronger signals than noise for temperature prediction; however, the area proportion that had meaningful signals for precipitation prediction was less than 20%. Thus, the multi-model ensemble was more reliable in predicting temperature than precipitation because of large uncertainties of precipitation.
THE INTERDECADAL VARIATION OF THE SOUTH ASIAN HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL REGIONS
PENG Li-xia, ZHU Wei-jun, LI Zhong-xian, NI Dong-hong, CHEN Hai-shan, PAN Lin-lin, LIU Yu-bao
2018, 24(1): 111-122. doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2018.01.011
Abstract:
This study aims to explore the interdecadal variation of South Asian High (SAH) and its relationship with SST (Sea surface temperature) of the tropical and subtropical regions by using the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1948 to 2012, based on the NCAR CAM 3.0 general circulation model. The results show that: 1) the intensity of SAH represents a remarkable interdecadal variation characteristic, the intensity of SAH experienced from weak to strong at the late 1970s, and after the late 1970s , its strength is enhanced and the area is expanded in the east-west direction. The expansion degree is greater westward than eastward, while it is opposite in summer. 2) Corresponding to the interdecadal variation of SAH intensity, after the late 1970s, the divergent component of wind field has two ascending and three descending areas. Of the two ascending areas, one is located in the East Pacific, the other location varies with the season from the Indian Ocean in winter to the South China Sea and West Pacific in summer. Three descending areas are located in the north-central Africa, the East Asia and the Middle Pacific region respectively. 3) Corresponding to the interdecadal variation of SAH intensity, the rotational component of wind field at the lower level is an anomalous cyclone over the South China Sea and West Pacific in summer, while in winter, it is an anomalous cyclone over the Indian Ocean, and an anomalous anticyclone over the equatorial Middle Pacific. 4) Numerical simulations show that the interdecadal variation of SAH is closely related to the SST of the tropical and subtropical regions. The SST of Indian Ocean plays an important role in winter, while in summer, the SST of the South China Sea and West Pacific plays an important role, and the SST of the East Pacific also plays a certain role.