2016 Vol. 22, No. S1
2016, 22(S1): 1-14.
doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.S1.001
Abstract:
Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea (TRAMS), Typhoon Roke (1115) and Sonca (1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction, have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast. The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model. Several initialization schemes have been designed and the corresponding experiments have been done for Typhoon Roke and Sonca. The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons’ track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca, compared with using the scheme for both typhoons. By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement. All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests. It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast. Besides, the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon. It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon.
Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea (TRAMS), Typhoon Roke (1115) and Sonca (1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction, have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast. The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model. Several initialization schemes have been designed and the corresponding experiments have been done for Typhoon Roke and Sonca. The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons’ track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca, compared with using the scheme for both typhoons. By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement. All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests. It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast. Besides, the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon. It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon.
2016, 22(S1): 15-23.
doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.S1.002
Abstract:
Utilizing the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Tokyo-Typhoon Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA RSMC TOKYO) best-track tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1951–C2014, variations in spatial and temporal characteristics of Northwest Pacific TC activity for a global warming scenario are discussed. The results suggest that since the early 1960s, there has been an overall decreasing trend in the frequency of occurrence, intensity, peak intensity, length of movement, and lifetime of TCs. However, global warming has led to a linearly increasing trend in TC activity in eastern Asia, which indicates that Northwest Pacific TC activity decreases, but the frequency of landfalls and intensity are likely strengthened. Therefore, the threat of TCs towards eastern Asia is enhanced. The increase in TC activity in eastern Asia is likely the result of a strengthened Walker circulation due to an increasing temperature gradient between the northwest Pacific Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The strengthening Walker circulation could increase the magnitude of the vertical wind shear, relative vorticity, and meridional wind shear of low-level easterlies near the equator in the tropical Northwest Pacific, which affects the spatial and temporal variations of TC activity in the Northwest Pacific.
Utilizing the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Tokyo-Typhoon Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA RSMC TOKYO) best-track tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1951–C2014, variations in spatial and temporal characteristics of Northwest Pacific TC activity for a global warming scenario are discussed. The results suggest that since the early 1960s, there has been an overall decreasing trend in the frequency of occurrence, intensity, peak intensity, length of movement, and lifetime of TCs. However, global warming has led to a linearly increasing trend in TC activity in eastern Asia, which indicates that Northwest Pacific TC activity decreases, but the frequency of landfalls and intensity are likely strengthened. Therefore, the threat of TCs towards eastern Asia is enhanced. The increase in TC activity in eastern Asia is likely the result of a strengthened Walker circulation due to an increasing temperature gradient between the northwest Pacific Ocean and the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The strengthening Walker circulation could increase the magnitude of the vertical wind shear, relative vorticity, and meridional wind shear of low-level easterlies near the equator in the tropical Northwest Pacific, which affects the spatial and temporal variations of TC activity in the Northwest Pacific.
2016, 22(S1): 24-36.
doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.S1.003
Abstract:
In this study, two possible persistent anomalies of the Madden-Julian Oscillation mode (MJO) are found in the summer season (persistently Pacific active and Indian Ocean active), and an index is set to define the intensity of the two modes. They are proved to have high statistical correlations to the later ENSO events in the autumn and winter seasons: When persistent anomaly of MJO happens in the Pacific Ocean in summer, El Niño events are often induced during the autumn and winter seasons of that year. However, during the other MJO mode when the summer persistent anomaly of MJO occurs in the Indian Ocean, La Niña events often follow instead. The analysis of the atmospheric circulation field indicates that persistent anomaly of MJO can probably affect the entire Equatorial Pacific circulation, and results in wind stress anomalies. The wind stress anomalies could excite warm or cold water masses which propagate eastwards at the subsurface ocean. The accumulation of warm or cold subsurface water in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean may eventually lead to the formation of an ENSO.
In this study, two possible persistent anomalies of the Madden-Julian Oscillation mode (MJO) are found in the summer season (persistently Pacific active and Indian Ocean active), and an index is set to define the intensity of the two modes. They are proved to have high statistical correlations to the later ENSO events in the autumn and winter seasons: When persistent anomaly of MJO happens in the Pacific Ocean in summer, El Niño events are often induced during the autumn and winter seasons of that year. However, during the other MJO mode when the summer persistent anomaly of MJO occurs in the Indian Ocean, La Niña events often follow instead. The analysis of the atmospheric circulation field indicates that persistent anomaly of MJO can probably affect the entire Equatorial Pacific circulation, and results in wind stress anomalies. The wind stress anomalies could excite warm or cold water masses which propagate eastwards at the subsurface ocean. The accumulation of warm or cold subsurface water in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean may eventually lead to the formation of an ENSO.
2016, 22(S1): 37-45.
doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.S1.004
Abstract:
The abrupt changes of zonal circulation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region and their likely causes are derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. The zonal circulation over the TP abruptly changed in summer (31st pentad) and winter (59th pentad). The switch from summer to winter circulation is characterized by a sudden northward shift of the westerlies and the zero-velocity curve and disappearance of the westerly jet. The winter–Csummer switch is characterized by the reverse pattern. Therefore, the circulation conversion between summer and winter can be judged from the position of the zero-velocity curve. Curves located north of 20 °N indicate summer circulation over the TP and vice versa. The abrupt change of zonal circulation is mainly caused by the thermodynamic effect of the TP. In June, this effect causes a huge monsoon circulation cell extending from the TP to low latitudes. Consequently, the westerlies jump to the north as easterlies develop. This process, which is enhanced by the strong northerly in Coriolis, establishes the summer circulation. In October, the Hadley cell recurs as the thermal effects of the TP diminish, the westerlies rush southward, and the winter circulation is established.
The abrupt changes of zonal circulation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region and their likely causes are derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. The zonal circulation over the TP abruptly changed in summer (31st pentad) and winter (59th pentad). The switch from summer to winter circulation is characterized by a sudden northward shift of the westerlies and the zero-velocity curve and disappearance of the westerly jet. The winter–Csummer switch is characterized by the reverse pattern. Therefore, the circulation conversion between summer and winter can be judged from the position of the zero-velocity curve. Curves located north of 20 °N indicate summer circulation over the TP and vice versa. The abrupt change of zonal circulation is mainly caused by the thermodynamic effect of the TP. In June, this effect causes a huge monsoon circulation cell extending from the TP to low latitudes. Consequently, the westerlies jump to the north as easterlies develop. This process, which is enhanced by the strong northerly in Coriolis, establishes the summer circulation. In October, the Hadley cell recurs as the thermal effects of the TP diminish, the westerlies rush southward, and the winter circulation is established.
2016, 22(S1): 46-56.
doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.S1.005
Abstract:
85-station daily precipitation data from 1961―2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the precipitation of the first rain season and its relationships with moisture transport in South China, and channels of low-frequency water vapor transport and sources of low-frequency precipitation are revealed. The annually first raining season precipitation in 2010 is mainly controlled by 10–C20 d and 30–C60 d oscillation. The rainfall is more (interrupted) when the two low-frequency components are in the same peak (valley) phase, and the rainfall is less when they are superposed in the inverse phase. The 10–C20 d low-frequency component of the moisture transport is more active than the 30–C60 d. The 10–C20 d water vapor sources lie in the South India Ocean near 30° S, the area between Sumatra and Kalimantan Island (the southwest source), and the equatorial middle Pacific region (the southeast source), and there are corresponding southwest and southeast moisture transport channels. By using the characteristics of 10–C20 d water vapor transport anomalous circulation, the corresponding low-frequency precipitation can be predicted 6 d ahead.
85-station daily precipitation data from 1961―2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the precipitation of the first rain season and its relationships with moisture transport in South China, and channels of low-frequency water vapor transport and sources of low-frequency precipitation are revealed. The annually first raining season precipitation in 2010 is mainly controlled by 10–C20 d and 30–C60 d oscillation. The rainfall is more (interrupted) when the two low-frequency components are in the same peak (valley) phase, and the rainfall is less when they are superposed in the inverse phase. The 10–C20 d low-frequency component of the moisture transport is more active than the 30–C60 d. The 10–C20 d water vapor sources lie in the South India Ocean near 30° S, the area between Sumatra and Kalimantan Island (the southwest source), and the equatorial middle Pacific region (the southeast source), and there are corresponding southwest and southeast moisture transport channels. By using the characteristics of 10–C20 d water vapor transport anomalous circulation, the corresponding low-frequency precipitation can be predicted 6 d ahead.
2016, 22(S1): 57-66.
doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.S1.006
Abstract:
We analyzed cloud microphysical processes’ latent heat characteristics and their influence on an autumn heavy rain event over Hainan Island, China, using the mesoscale numerical model WRF and WRF-3DVAR system. We found that positive latent heat occurred far above the zero layer, while negative latent heat occurred mainly under the zero layer. There was substantially more positive latent heat than negative latent heat, and the condensation heating had the most important contribution to the latent heat increase. The processes of deposition, congelation, melting and evaporation were all characterized by weakening after their intensification; however, the variations in condensation and sublimation processes were relatively small. The main cloud microphysical processes for positive latent heat were condensation of water vapor into cloud water, the condensation of rain, and the deposition increase of cloud ice, snow and graupel. The main cloud microphysical processes for negative latent heat were the evaporation of rain, the melting and enhanced melting of graupel. The latent heat releases due to different cloud microphysical processes have a significant impact on the intensity of precipitation. Without the condensation and evaporation of rain, the total latent heating would decrease and the moisture variables and precipitation would reduce significantly. Without deposition and sublimation, the heating in high levels would decrease and the precipitation would reduce. Without congelation and melting, the latent heating would enhance in the low levels, and the precipitation would reduce.
We analyzed cloud microphysical processes’ latent heat characteristics and their influence on an autumn heavy rain event over Hainan Island, China, using the mesoscale numerical model WRF and WRF-3DVAR system. We found that positive latent heat occurred far above the zero layer, while negative latent heat occurred mainly under the zero layer. There was substantially more positive latent heat than negative latent heat, and the condensation heating had the most important contribution to the latent heat increase. The processes of deposition, congelation, melting and evaporation were all characterized by weakening after their intensification; however, the variations in condensation and sublimation processes were relatively small. The main cloud microphysical processes for positive latent heat were condensation of water vapor into cloud water, the condensation of rain, and the deposition increase of cloud ice, snow and graupel. The main cloud microphysical processes for negative latent heat were the evaporation of rain, the melting and enhanced melting of graupel. The latent heat releases due to different cloud microphysical processes have a significant impact on the intensity of precipitation. Without the condensation and evaporation of rain, the total latent heating would decrease and the moisture variables and precipitation would reduce significantly. Without deposition and sublimation, the heating in high levels would decrease and the precipitation would reduce. Without congelation and melting, the latent heating would enhance in the low levels, and the precipitation would reduce.
2016, 22(S1): 67-77.
doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.S1.007
Abstract:
Haze-to-fog transformation during a long lasting, low visibility episode was examined using the observations from a comprehensive field campaign conducted in Nanjing, China during 4-9 December 2013. In this episode, haze was transformed into fog and the fog lasted for dozens of hours. The impacts of meteorological factors such as wind, temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) on haze, transition and fog during this episode were investigated. Results revealed significant differences between haze and fog days, due to their different formation mechanisms. Comparison was made for boundary-layer conditions during hazy days, haze-to-fog days and foggy days. Distributions of wind speed and wind direction as well as synoptic weather conditions around Nanjing had determinative impacts on the occurrences and characteristics of haze and fog. Weakened southerly wind in southern Nanjing resulted in high concentration of pollutants, and haze events occurred frequently during the study period. The wind speed was less than 1 m s-1 in the haze event, which resulted in a stable atmospheric condition and weak dispersion of the pollutants. The height of the temperature inversion was about 400 m during the period. The inversion intensity was weak and the temperature-difference was 4°C km-1 or less in haze, while the inversion was stronger, and temperature-difference was about 6°C km-1, approaching the inversion layer intensity in the fog event. Haze event is strongly influenced by ambient RH. RH values increased, which resulted in haze days evidently increased, suggesting that an increasing fraction of haze events be caused by hygroscopic growth of aerosols, rather than simply by high aerosol loading. When RH was above 90%, haze aerosols started to be transformed from haze to fog. This study calls for more efforts to control emissions to prevent haze events in the region.
Haze-to-fog transformation during a long lasting, low visibility episode was examined using the observations from a comprehensive field campaign conducted in Nanjing, China during 4-9 December 2013. In this episode, haze was transformed into fog and the fog lasted for dozens of hours. The impacts of meteorological factors such as wind, temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) on haze, transition and fog during this episode were investigated. Results revealed significant differences between haze and fog days, due to their different formation mechanisms. Comparison was made for boundary-layer conditions during hazy days, haze-to-fog days and foggy days. Distributions of wind speed and wind direction as well as synoptic weather conditions around Nanjing had determinative impacts on the occurrences and characteristics of haze and fog. Weakened southerly wind in southern Nanjing resulted in high concentration of pollutants, and haze events occurred frequently during the study period. The wind speed was less than 1 m s-1 in the haze event, which resulted in a stable atmospheric condition and weak dispersion of the pollutants. The height of the temperature inversion was about 400 m during the period. The inversion intensity was weak and the temperature-difference was 4°C km-1 or less in haze, while the inversion was stronger, and temperature-difference was about 6°C km-1, approaching the inversion layer intensity in the fog event. Haze event is strongly influenced by ambient RH. RH values increased, which resulted in haze days evidently increased, suggesting that an increasing fraction of haze events be caused by hygroscopic growth of aerosols, rather than simply by high aerosol loading. When RH was above 90%, haze aerosols started to be transformed from haze to fog. This study calls for more efforts to control emissions to prevent haze events in the region.
2016, 22(S1): 78-88.
doi: 10.16555/j.1006-8775.2016.S1.008
Abstract:
Ice water content (IWC) plays important roles in weather and climate change. Determining the IWCs of cirrus clouds with millimeter-wavelength radar can be problematic due to influences of ice particle rotation on their backscattering cross sections. We here introduce models to describe the radiation patterns of six nonspherical particles of specific sizes. Simulations using HFSS software were applied to describe the differences resulting from different orientations and equivalent spheres. A double exponential function was used for fitting to describe the relationship between the particles’ maximum sizes and backscattering cross sections. The backscattering cross sections of nonspherical ice particles were computed by the method of moment, and those of the equivalent spherical particles were computed by Lorenz-Mie theory for three different orientations: fixed, horizontal, and random. Assuming that a mixture of nonspherical ice particles follows the B-H mixing model, the size distribution of cirrus particles obeys the exponential distribution measured by NASA in 2007. By computing the IWCs of cirrus clouds, which follows the above mentioned B-H model and exponential distribution, the radar reflectivity factors of nonspherical ice particles and equivalent spheres at three different orientations can be computed. Subsequently, the IWC results can be acquired by inputting the radar reflectivity variables into the well-known IWC-Z formula. The analysis described here demonstrates that when using the radar reflectivity Z, the orientation must be considered in order to determine the IWC. Using equivalent sphere theory, the derived IWCs underestimate the actual IWCs. These results are important for accurately retrieving the microphysical parameters of cirrus clouds.
Ice water content (IWC) plays important roles in weather and climate change. Determining the IWCs of cirrus clouds with millimeter-wavelength radar can be problematic due to influences of ice particle rotation on their backscattering cross sections. We here introduce models to describe the radiation patterns of six nonspherical particles of specific sizes. Simulations using HFSS software were applied to describe the differences resulting from different orientations and equivalent spheres. A double exponential function was used for fitting to describe the relationship between the particles’ maximum sizes and backscattering cross sections. The backscattering cross sections of nonspherical ice particles were computed by the method of moment, and those of the equivalent spherical particles were computed by Lorenz-Mie theory for three different orientations: fixed, horizontal, and random. Assuming that a mixture of nonspherical ice particles follows the B-H mixing model, the size distribution of cirrus particles obeys the exponential distribution measured by NASA in 2007. By computing the IWCs of cirrus clouds, which follows the above mentioned B-H model and exponential distribution, the radar reflectivity factors of nonspherical ice particles and equivalent spheres at three different orientations can be computed. Subsequently, the IWC results can be acquired by inputting the radar reflectivity variables into the well-known IWC-Z formula. The analysis described here demonstrates that when using the radar reflectivity Z, the orientation must be considered in order to determine the IWC. Using equivalent sphere theory, the derived IWCs underestimate the actual IWCs. These results are important for accurately retrieving the microphysical parameters of cirrus clouds.
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