2005 Vol. 11, No. 2
2005, 11(2): 113-120.
Abstract:
Applying the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to the sea surface temperature (SST) field of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans for determination of the first eigenvector field, the current work reveals that there are significant zonal gradients of SST in all seasons of the year in the northwestern and eastern Indian Ocean and equatorial central and eastern Pacific and western Pacific. It is also found that the variance contribution rates of the first EOF mode of every season is more than 33%. This shows that this kind of spatial distribution of the SST is stable. This pattern is named Pacific-Indian Oceans SSTA mode. Through careful analysis and comparison, an index of the mode was defined.
Applying the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to the sea surface temperature (SST) field of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans for determination of the first eigenvector field, the current work reveals that there are significant zonal gradients of SST in all seasons of the year in the northwestern and eastern Indian Ocean and equatorial central and eastern Pacific and western Pacific. It is also found that the variance contribution rates of the first EOF mode of every season is more than 33%. This shows that this kind of spatial distribution of the SST is stable. This pattern is named Pacific-Indian Oceans SSTA mode. Through careful analysis and comparison, an index of the mode was defined.
THE IMPACT OF PRECEDING ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND SST VARIATION ON FLOOD SEASON RAINFALL IN YUNNAN
2005, 11(2): 121-130.
Abstract:
Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and scale range of two significant areas were obtained by analyzing the relationship among summer rainfall in Yunnan province, height field and SST field (40°S –C 40°N, 30 °E –C 70°W) across the North Hemisphere at 200 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa for Jan. to May and correlation, and field wave structure. Remote key regions among summer rainfall in Yunnan province, height field and SST field (40°S –C 40°N, 30°E –C 70°W) across the North Hemisphere at 200 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa were studied through further analyzing of the circulation system and its climate / weather significance. The result shows that the forecast has dependable physical basis when height and SST fields were viewed as predictors and physical models of impacts on rainy season precipitation in Yunnan are preliminarily concluded.
Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and scale range of two significant areas were obtained by analyzing the relationship among summer rainfall in Yunnan province, height field and SST field (40°S –C 40°N, 30 °E –C 70°W) across the North Hemisphere at 200 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa for Jan. to May and correlation, and field wave structure. Remote key regions among summer rainfall in Yunnan province, height field and SST field (40°S –C 40°N, 30°E –C 70°W) across the North Hemisphere at 200 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa were studied through further analyzing of the circulation system and its climate / weather significance. The result shows that the forecast has dependable physical basis when height and SST fields were viewed as predictors and physical models of impacts on rainy season precipitation in Yunnan are preliminarily concluded.
MOTION AND INTENSITY AND IMPACT CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AFFECTING THE LIAODONG PENINSULA
2005, 11(2): 131-143.
Abstract:
Conventional data and the Yearbook on Tropical Cyclones (TC) data from 1971 to 2000 are used to study the climate and disaster features of TC affecting the Liaodong Peninsula. Results indicate that interannual change of TC activities is obvious. Different sources of TC have different impacts on the area of interest. Intensity and moving speed of TC vary substantially in the progress of northward movement. Besides, tracks and damage distributions of TC are quite different.
Conventional data and the Yearbook on Tropical Cyclones (TC) data from 1971 to 2000 are used to study the climate and disaster features of TC affecting the Liaodong Peninsula. Results indicate that interannual change of TC activities is obvious. Different sources of TC have different impacts on the area of interest. Intensity and moving speed of TC vary substantially in the progress of northward movement. Besides, tracks and damage distributions of TC are quite different.
2005, 11(2): 144-153.
Abstract:
A sensitive numerical simulation study is carried out to investigate the effects of condensation heating and surface fluxes on the development of a South China MCS that occurred during 23 –C 24 May 1998. The results reveal the following: (1) Condensation heating plays an important role in the development of MCS. In every different stage, without condensation heating, MCS precipitation is significantly reduced, and quickly dissipates. (2) Condensation heating demonstrates most importantly during the early development stages of MCS vortex; as the vortex develops stronger, the condensation heating effects reduces. (3) By affecting the MCS development processes, condensation heating also influences the formation of MCS mesoscale environment structure features such as low-level jet (mLLJ), upper-level divergence. (4) By changing the antecedent environmental circulation, the surface fluxes also play an important role in the development of MCS. Because of the surface heating, pressure declines over the heavy rainfall and MCS happening regions, which results in the intensification of southerly flows from the ocean along the South China coastline areas, and leads to the enhancement of horizontal convergence and increase of vapor amount in the lower layer. All of these make the atmosphere more unstable and more favorable for the convection.
A sensitive numerical simulation study is carried out to investigate the effects of condensation heating and surface fluxes on the development of a South China MCS that occurred during 23 –C 24 May 1998. The results reveal the following: (1) Condensation heating plays an important role in the development of MCS. In every different stage, without condensation heating, MCS precipitation is significantly reduced, and quickly dissipates. (2) Condensation heating demonstrates most importantly during the early development stages of MCS vortex; as the vortex develops stronger, the condensation heating effects reduces. (3) By affecting the MCS development processes, condensation heating also influences the formation of MCS mesoscale environment structure features such as low-level jet (mLLJ), upper-level divergence. (4) By changing the antecedent environmental circulation, the surface fluxes also play an important role in the development of MCS. Because of the surface heating, pressure declines over the heavy rainfall and MCS happening regions, which results in the intensification of southerly flows from the ocean along the South China coastline areas, and leads to the enhancement of horizontal convergence and increase of vapor amount in the lower layer. All of these make the atmosphere more unstable and more favorable for the convection.
2005, 11(2): 154-160.
Abstract:
We statistically analyze the tropical typhoon forming in the South China Sea and use TC (Tropical Cyclone) for short in the following) by typhoon yearbook. The typhoon quantity is very different in different months and years. TC appears in all months except March, and the most TC quantity in a year is 11, the least is 1 and 6.2 on average. The most TC quantity in a month is 5 and the least is 0. TC lands most in August and no TC lands on Chinese continent from December to the following April. The primary landing area is between Shantou and Hainan Island. The sustaining period of TC is usually between 4 days to 7days, and the longest is 19 days. Only 15% of the TC forming in the South China Sea can intensify to typhoon, and they all form in the ocean area deeper than 150m. The South China Sea is the ocean area over which the TC occurs frequently.
We statistically analyze the tropical typhoon forming in the South China Sea and use TC (Tropical Cyclone) for short in the following) by typhoon yearbook. The typhoon quantity is very different in different months and years. TC appears in all months except March, and the most TC quantity in a year is 11, the least is 1 and 6.2 on average. The most TC quantity in a month is 5 and the least is 0. TC lands most in August and no TC lands on Chinese continent from December to the following April. The primary landing area is between Shantou and Hainan Island. The sustaining period of TC is usually between 4 days to 7days, and the longest is 19 days. Only 15% of the TC forming in the South China Sea can intensify to typhoon, and they all form in the ocean area deeper than 150m. The South China Sea is the ocean area over which the TC occurs frequently.
2005, 11(2): 161-168.
Abstract:
Stability parameters (Monin-Obukhov length L, gradient Richardson number Ri and bulk Rischardson number Ri), which are applicable in urban environment, were discussed for ways of calculating classification standards. Gradient observations from a 325-m meteorological tower in Beijing are used to categorize Rib based on three different standards of stability proposed by D. Golder, Irwin and Houghton. The results show that it is relatively reasonable for the region of Beijing to apply the classification standard by Irwin.
Stability parameters (Monin-Obukhov length L, gradient Richardson number Ri and bulk Rischardson number Ri), which are applicable in urban environment, were discussed for ways of calculating classification standards. Gradient observations from a 325-m meteorological tower in Beijing are used to categorize Rib based on three different standards of stability proposed by D. Golder, Irwin and Houghton. The results show that it is relatively reasonable for the region of Beijing to apply the classification standard by Irwin.
2005, 11(2): 169-177.
Abstract:
This study examined the rainfall around the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and related atmospheric circulation by using NCEP reanalysis data. The purpose of this study is to analyze their decadal variation and the relationship among rainfall, atmospheric circulation around East Asia and the ENSO episodes. Current results are presented as follows: (1) Very clear increasing trend of the rainfall around the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River during the Meiyu period and June to July is found in the recent 15 years. Meanwhile, the geopotential height at 500 hPa around the Okhotsk Sea also holds similar increasing trend. It is noticeable that ENSO episodes tend to occur more frequently in the recent 15 years. (2) An index describing East Asian summer monsoon is well correlated with the SST in the Nino-3 region in preceding autumn in the recent 20 years but is not prior to the period. This means that the El Nino phenomenon exerts more impacts on East Asian summer monsoon recently. (3) The warm phase of PDO in the recent 20 years basically coincides with the increasing trend of the atmospheric circulation in East Asia.
This study examined the rainfall around the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and related atmospheric circulation by using NCEP reanalysis data. The purpose of this study is to analyze their decadal variation and the relationship among rainfall, atmospheric circulation around East Asia and the ENSO episodes. Current results are presented as follows: (1) Very clear increasing trend of the rainfall around the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River during the Meiyu period and June to July is found in the recent 15 years. Meanwhile, the geopotential height at 500 hPa around the Okhotsk Sea also holds similar increasing trend. It is noticeable that ENSO episodes tend to occur more frequently in the recent 15 years. (2) An index describing East Asian summer monsoon is well correlated with the SST in the Nino-3 region in preceding autumn in the recent 20 years but is not prior to the period. This means that the El Nino phenomenon exerts more impacts on East Asian summer monsoon recently. (3) The warm phase of PDO in the recent 20 years basically coincides with the increasing trend of the atmospheric circulation in East Asia.
2005, 11(2): 178-186.
Abstract:
An objective technique of tropical cyclone (TC) moving direction prediction over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean during 2001 –C 2002 is studied using GMS-5 Outing-Longwave Radiation (OLR) data. Three formulae used to predict TC moving direction in 6, 12 and 24 h, respectively, have been obtained based on a multiple linear regression framework and some regression factors including several kinds of OLR characteristic values and the minimum sea level pressure of tropical cyclone center. The multiple correlation coefficients of the statistical analysis using the information of TCs in the Yearbook on Tropical Cyclones to validate the satellitebased prediction are 0.954, 0.945 and 0.914 respectively. The results are satisfying through checking one of the TCs in 2001.The techniques could be applied in future operation and would contribute to TC movement prediction, especially to a sudden change in TC moving direction and improving the forecasting and warning capability.
An objective technique of tropical cyclone (TC) moving direction prediction over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean during 2001 –C 2002 is studied using GMS-5 Outing-Longwave Radiation (OLR) data. Three formulae used to predict TC moving direction in 6, 12 and 24 h, respectively, have been obtained based on a multiple linear regression framework and some regression factors including several kinds of OLR characteristic values and the minimum sea level pressure of tropical cyclone center. The multiple correlation coefficients of the statistical analysis using the information of TCs in the Yearbook on Tropical Cyclones to validate the satellitebased prediction are 0.954, 0.945 and 0.914 respectively. The results are satisfying through checking one of the TCs in 2001.The techniques could be applied in future operation and would contribute to TC movement prediction, especially to a sudden change in TC moving direction and improving the forecasting and warning capability.
2005, 11(2): 187-199.
Abstract:
With the development of high-resolution and multi-scale unified numerical model, some of techniques about non-hydrostatic meso-scale numerical weather prediction are addressed. The impact of the vertical coordinate system is one of them. In this paper, based on a WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model, the impact on the calculation of vertical velocity was studied with different vertical coordinates. The simulation results showed that the calculation of vertical velocity is sensitive to vertical coordinates. It is especially more evident when the resolution increased. Due to the close relationships between vertical velocity and precipitation, the difference of vertical velocity inevitably influences model’s description of precipitation. An ideal experiment exhibits that pressure gradient force computations in the pressure terrainfollowing coordinate are sensitive to surface pressure.
With the development of high-resolution and multi-scale unified numerical model, some of techniques about non-hydrostatic meso-scale numerical weather prediction are addressed. The impact of the vertical coordinate system is one of them. In this paper, based on a WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model, the impact on the calculation of vertical velocity was studied with different vertical coordinates. The simulation results showed that the calculation of vertical velocity is sensitive to vertical coordinates. It is especially more evident when the resolution increased. Due to the close relationships between vertical velocity and precipitation, the difference of vertical velocity inevitably influences model’s description of precipitation. An ideal experiment exhibits that pressure gradient force computations in the pressure terrainfollowing coordinate are sensitive to surface pressure.
2005, 11(2): 200-205.
Abstract:
On the basis of NOAA/CPC data of sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño regions during Jan. 1950 –C Dec. 2003, the wavelet power spectrum of SST were studied with significance and confidence testing at different scales in this paper. It shows that the SST are provided with multi-time scales structure nested one another, and vary on scales of 2 –C 7 years, 8 –C 20 years and >30 years. The most significant variation of the warm and cold episodes is in the 4-year band of period. The power, frequency structure and confidence of the same episode are different in different Niño regions. The intensity of oscillations is increasing at low frequency bands and decreasing at high frequency bands from east to west in the Niño regions, especially after 1970.
On the basis of NOAA/CPC data of sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño regions during Jan. 1950 –C Dec. 2003, the wavelet power spectrum of SST were studied with significance and confidence testing at different scales in this paper. It shows that the SST are provided with multi-time scales structure nested one another, and vary on scales of 2 –C 7 years, 8 –C 20 years and >30 years. The most significant variation of the warm and cold episodes is in the 4-year band of period. The power, frequency structure and confidence of the same episode are different in different Niño regions. The intensity of oscillations is increasing at low frequency bands and decreasing at high frequency bands from east to west in the Niño regions, especially after 1970.
2005, 11(2): 206-212.
Abstract:
Based on China’s monthly precipitation data from 1950 to 2000 and by using the Z-index, 4 categories of flood were estimated. Variation and change of flood in South China were analyzed in terms of percentage areas of flood. This study reveals that flood areas in South China had a slightly decreasing trend in the latest 50 years. During the winter half year, however, it displayed an increasing trend, especially since the 1990’s. It is also found that flood areas decreased during the summer half year from April to September, but increased during summer, especially since the 1990’s. In the annually first season of precipitation, the flood area has a decreasing trend, but it has a strongly increasing trend in the annually second season. The gradual wet trend during the winter-half year results in wetter climate condition for South China, which will be more favorable for spreading some of the epidemic pathogenic bacterium, crop diseases and insect pests.
Based on China’s monthly precipitation data from 1950 to 2000 and by using the Z-index, 4 categories of flood were estimated. Variation and change of flood in South China were analyzed in terms of percentage areas of flood. This study reveals that flood areas in South China had a slightly decreasing trend in the latest 50 years. During the winter half year, however, it displayed an increasing trend, especially since the 1990’s. It is also found that flood areas decreased during the summer half year from April to September, but increased during summer, especially since the 1990’s. In the annually first season of precipitation, the flood area has a decreasing trend, but it has a strongly increasing trend in the annually second season. The gradual wet trend during the winter-half year results in wetter climate condition for South China, which will be more favorable for spreading some of the epidemic pathogenic bacterium, crop diseases and insect pests.
2005, 11(2): 213-219.
Abstract:
With the series of annual and seasonal temperature during 1957 –C 2001 in Dongguan, Guangdong, the statistical characteristic and power spectrum and secular trend and sudden change phenomena are computed in this paper. From the results it is known that (1) the temperatures have obvious characteristics of monsoon climate but do not have normal distribution, showing biased distribution of high or low kurtosis; (2) over the recent halfcentury, the temperatures tend to rise, specially in the last 10 years, in which mean temperature have quickly ascended by about 1.5°C, and except for the spring, there were sudden change of seasonal temperature rising from the 1980’s to 1990’s, which really reflected the influence of developing and opening and urbanization on Dongguan temperature; (3) except for the spring, the temperature of other seasons show some oscillatory periods in Dongguan and some of them also include long-term variation trends.
With the series of annual and seasonal temperature during 1957 –C 2001 in Dongguan, Guangdong, the statistical characteristic and power spectrum and secular trend and sudden change phenomena are computed in this paper. From the results it is known that (1) the temperatures have obvious characteristics of monsoon climate but do not have normal distribution, showing biased distribution of high or low kurtosis; (2) over the recent halfcentury, the temperatures tend to rise, specially in the last 10 years, in which mean temperature have quickly ascended by about 1.5°C, and except for the spring, there were sudden change of seasonal temperature rising from the 1980’s to 1990’s, which really reflected the influence of developing and opening and urbanization on Dongguan temperature; (3) except for the spring, the temperature of other seasons show some oscillatory periods in Dongguan and some of them also include long-term variation trends.
2005, 11(2): 220-221.
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2005, 11(2): 222-224.
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