Numerical Simulation and Diagnostic Analysis for the Maintenance Mechanism of the "3·31" Squall Line Event in Jiangxi Province

The "3·31" severe squall line event in eastern China was notable for its exceptional intensity and persistence, posing significant challenges to forecast accuracy. This study analyzed the maintenance stage of this event using high-resolution convection-permitting numerical simulations, with a focus on vorticity budgets of the environmental flow, multi-scale synoptic diagnostics, and Rotunno-Klemp-Weisman (RKW) theory. These analyses aimed to elucidate the mechanisms governing the morphological transition, the generation of associated convective gales, and the prolonged maintenance of the squall line event. The results show that the numerical simulation accurately reproduced the development and evolution of the squall line, particularly its location, with surface wind errors remaining within a reasonable range. The development of a mesoscale vortex modulated the dynamic and water vapor fields, providing favorable mesoscale environmental conditions for the organization and maintenance of the squall line. Vorticity budget analysis indicates that the divergence and tilting terms were the primary contributors to vorticity tendency. After the squall line entered Jiangxi Province, it exhibited a sharper leading edge and enhanced upward motion. Dry intrusion from the mid-to-upper troposphere led to rapid downward momentum transfer at the meso-γ scale, thereby generating convective gales. In addition, the enhancement of the rear-inflow jet (RIJ) was related to the pressure difference between the interior and exterior of system, which resulted from the phase change of condensate within tilted updrafts. The RIJ was orthogonal to the squall line, causing it to transform from a linear into a bowing shape. Diagnosis based on the RKW theory underscore the important roles in both low-level and deep vertical wind shear in maintenaning the squall line. The ratios of the cold pool propagation velocity to the vertical wind shear were close to 1, which balanced with the ambient horizontal vorticity that allowed the convection to remain upright, thus sustaining the squall line's intensity for an extended period. In summary, the squall line event was sustained by a favorable environment created by the environmental vortex. The dry intrusion from the mid-to-upper troposphere and intensified RIJ resulted in the severe convective winds, while the balance between cold pool and ambient vertical wind shear promoted the system's prolonged maintenance. These findings provide an effective reference for the short-range forecasting of squall lines throughout their lifecycle.