Multi-Scale Influencing Factors and Prediction of Interannual Variability in Rapid Intensification Magnitude of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones

The rapid intensification (RI) magnitude of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) exhibits significant interannual variability and is influenced by multiple factors across various scales. These factors primarily include: interannual factors—sea surface temperature (SST) in key regions of the WNP, eastern Indian Ocean SST, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), South Pacific Subtropical Dipole (SPSD), and western Pacific teleconnection; decadal factors—Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); and longer-term factor —global warming. This study systematically analyzes these factors and their potential impacts, quantitatively assessing their relative importance. A statistical prediction model for the WNP TC-RI magnitude is developed based on ridge regression methods. The results indicate that the influence of these factors on the RI magnitude is closely related to the large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions. Among them, the SPSD plays the most critical role in the interannual variability of the RI magnitude, followed by global warming and the AMO. Further analysis reveals that the statistical prediction model based on multiple factors demonstrates good predictive skill for the interannual variability of the TC RI magnitude.