THE DOWNSCALING FORECASTING OF SEASONAL PRECIPITATION IN GUANGDONG BASED ON CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEMS PRODUCTS

LI Chun-hui; LIN Ai-lan; GU De-jun; WANG Ting; PAN Wei-juan; ZHEN Bin

Abstract:

The Climate Forecast Systems (CFS) datasets provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which cover the time from 1981 to 2008, can be used to forecast atmospheric circulation nine months ahead. Compared with the NCEP datasets, CFS datasets successfully simulate many major features of the Asian monsoon circulation systems and exhibit reasonably high skill in simulating and predicting ENSO events. Based on the CFS forecasting results, a downscaling method of Optimal Subset Regression (OSR) and mean generational function model of multiple variables are used to forecast seasonal precipitation in Guangdong. After statistical analysis tests, sea level pressure, wind and geopotential height field are made predictors. Although the results are unstable in some individual seasons, both the OSR and multivariate mean generational function model can provide good forecasting as operational tests score more than sixty points. CFS datasets are available and updated in real time, as compared with the NCEP dataset. The downscaling forecast method based on the CFS datasets can predict three seasons of seasonal precipitation in Guangdong, enriching traditional statistical methods. However, its forecasting stability needs to be improved.

Get Citation+

LI Chun-hui, LIN Ai-lan, GU De-jun, et al. THE DOWNSCALING FORECASTING OF SEASONAL PRECIPITATION IN GUANGDONG BASED ON CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEMS PRODUCTS [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2014, 20(2): 143-153.

Export:

Article Metrics

THE DOWNSCALING FORECASTING OF SEASONAL PRECIPITATION IN GUANGDONG BASED ON CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEMS PRODUCTS

Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou 510080 China

Rev Recd Date: 2014-01-29

Abstract: The Climate Forecast Systems (CFS) datasets provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which cover the time from 1981 to 2008, can be used to forecast atmospheric circulation nine months ahead. Compared with the NCEP datasets, CFS datasets successfully simulate many major features of the Asian monsoon circulation systems and exhibit reasonably high skill in simulating and predicting ENSO events. Based on the CFS forecasting results, a downscaling method of Optimal Subset Regression (OSR) and mean generational function model of multiple variables are used to forecast seasonal precipitation in Guangdong. After statistical analysis tests, sea level pressure, wind and geopotential height field are made predictors. Although the results are unstable in some individual seasons, both the OSR and multivariate mean generational function model can provide good forecasting as operational tests score more than sixty points. CFS datasets are available and updated in real time, as compared with the NCEP dataset. The downscaling forecast method based on the CFS datasets can predict three seasons of seasonal precipitation in Guangdong, enriching traditional statistical methods. However, its forecasting stability needs to be improved.

HTML

Reference (25)

[1]	Von S H. Inconsistencies at the interface of climate impact studies and global climate research [J]. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 1995, 4: 72 280.
[2]	Von S H. The global and regional climate system [C]//Anthropogenic Climate Change. Berlin: Springer Verlag, 1999: 3-36.
[3]	LU Xin-ping, CHEN Xing, MIAO Man-qian. The study of initial data preprocessing in the downscaling method [J]. Sci. Meteor. Sinica, 2002, 22(2): 139-148.
[4]	CHEN Li-juan, LI Wei-jing, ZHANG Pei-qun. Application of a new downscaling model to monthly precipitation forecast [J]. Quart. J. Appl. Meteor., 2003, 14(6): 648-655.
[5]	FAN Li-jun, FU Cong-bin, CHEN De-liang. Estimation of local temperature change scenarios in North China using statistical downscaling method [J]. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 2007, 31(5): 887-897.
[6]	DING Yu-guo, LIU Ji-feng, ZHANG Yao-cun. Simulation tests of temporal-spatial distributions of extreme temperatures over China based on probability weighted moments estimation [J]. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 2002, 28(5): 771-782.
[7]	HE Hui, JIN Long, QIN Zhi-nian, et al. Downscaling forecast for the monthly precipitation over Guangxi based on the BP neural network model [J]. J. Trop. Meteor., 2007, 23(1): 72-77
[8]	WEI Feng-ying, HUANG Jia-you. A study of predictability for summer precipitation on East China using downscaling techniques [J]. J. Trop. Meteor., 2010, 26(4): 483-488.
[9]	MOORTHI S, PAN H L, CAPLAN P. Changes to the 2001 NCEP operational MRF/AVN global analysis/forecast system [R]. NWS Tech. Procedures Bull., 2001: 484, 14.
[10]	PACANOWSKI R C, GRIFFIES S M. MOM3.0 manual [R]. NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, 1998: 8542.
[11]	SAHA S, NADIGA S, THIAW C, et al. The NCEP climate forecast system [J]. J. Climate, 2006, 19(15): 3483-3517.
[12]	WEI Feng-ying. Techniques of Statistical Diagnostics and Prediction for Modern-Times Climate [M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1999: 194-201.
[13]	LIN Ai-lan. The multiple mean generational function model and its application in short-range climatic forecast [J]. J. Trop. Meteor., 2001, 17(3): 287-292
[14]	YANG S, ZHANG Z Q, KOUSKY V E, et al. Simulations and Seasonal prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system [J]. J Climate, 2008, 21: 3755-3775.
[15]	LIANG Jian-yin. The interannual variations of the subtropical high ridge position over western Pacific in June and its influence on precipitation in south of China [J]. J. Trop. Meteor., 1994, 10(3): 274-279.
[16]	QIN Wu, SUN Zhao-bo, DING Bao-shan, et al. Precipitation and circulation features during late-spring to early-summer flood rain in south China [J]. J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor., 1994, 17(4): 455-461.
[17]	DENG Li-ping, WANG Qian-qian. On the relationship between precipitation anomalies in the first raining season (April-June) in southern China and SST over offshore waters in China [J]. J. Trop. Meteor., 2002, 18(1): 44-55.
[18]	GUO Qi-yun, SHA Wan-ying. Analysis of rainfall variability during the first rainy season in South China [J]. Quart. J. Appl. Meteor., 1998, 9(suppl.): 9-15.
[19]	GAO Bo, CHEN Qian-jin, REN Dian-dong. Diagnostic analysis on the severe drought/flood for the beginning of flood season in southern part of the south of Yangtze River valley and northern South China [J]. Quart. J. Appl. Meteor., 1999, 10(2): 219-226.
[20]	CAI Yue-zhan, XU Jin-jing, WU Bin. Relationships Between Typical Droughts and Floods in the Annually First Raining Season and a Number of Preceding Physical Factors [M]//Research on the Methods of Diagnostic Analysis and Prediction of Severe Droughts and Floods and Chilly Weather. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2000: 166-173.
[21]	TAO Shi-yan. Abnormal Activities of Summer Monsoon in East Asia and Exceptionally Heavy Floods in South China in 1994 (I. Anomalies of the General Circulation) [C]// Proceedings of Seminar on Exceptionally Heavy Floods in South China in 1994. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1995: 1-5.
[22]	SUN Ying, DING Yi-hui. Role of summer monsoon in anomalous precipitation patterns during 1997 flooding season [J]. Quart. J. Appl. Meteor. 2002, 13(3): 277-287.
[23]	WU Shang-sen. Climatic Background for Exceptionally Heavy Rains in South China in 1994 [M]//Research on Exceptionally Heavy Rains in South China in 1994, Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1996: 23-30.
[24]	LI Yu-lan, DU Chang-xuan, TAO Shi-yan. Abnormal Activities of Summer Monsoon in East Asia and Exceptionally Heavy Floods in South China in 1994 (II. Synoptic Analysis of Exceptionally Heavy rains in Guangdong and Guangxi) [C]//Proceedings of Seminar on Exceptionally Heavy Floods in South China in 1994, Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1995: 6-13.
[25]	ZHANG Ai-hua, WU Heng-qiang, QIN Wu, et al. The preliminary exploration for the influence of general circulation over Southern Hemisphere on precipitation over South China during pre-flood season [J]. Meteor. Mon., 1997, 23(8): 9-15.

THE DOWNSCALING FORECASTING OF SEASONAL PRECIPITATION IN GUANGDONG BASED ON CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEMS PRODUCTS

Abstract:

References

Get Citation+

Share Article

Article Metrics

Proportional views

Manuscript History

Online:

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com