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Article >  Journal of Tropical Meteorology  > 1997 >  3(2): 152-158

AN IMPROVEMENT OF STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF TYPHOON TRACKS

  • Provincial Inditute of Meteorological Sciences of Zhejiang, Hangzhou, 310021

Funding:

  • In this paper, a statistical interpretation composite forecast model for typhoon track is set up by using numerical forecast products and several forecast schemes. Tested in 1994 typhoon season, its forecastperformance is much better than that of a previous statistical forecast model. The test shows that it is aneffective method that sufficiently Anproves objective forecast of typhoon track using the numerical forecast output products obtained in forecast and adopting several schemes in composition.
  • [1] Charles J,Neumann,Colion J,Mcadic,1991. A revised national hurricane center NHC83 Model NHC90). NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC-44. 12-23.
    [2] Neumann J,Lawtence B,1975. An operational experiment in the statistic-dynamical prediction of tropical cyclone motion. Mon. Wea. Rev.,103:665-673.
    [3] Robert C,Sheets,1990. The national hurricane center-past,present,and future,Weather and forecasting. 5: 76-89.
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Jin Yiming, Zhong Yuan. AN IMPROVEMENT OF STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF TYPHOON TRACKS [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1997, 3(2): 152-158.
Jin Yiming, Zhong Yuan. AN IMPROVEMENT OF STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF TYPHOON TRACKS [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1997, 3(2): 152-158.
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    • Manuscript History

    Manuscript received: 15 July 1995
    Manuscript revised: 24 November 1995
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    AN IMPROVEMENT OF STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF TYPHOON TRACKS

    • Provincial Inditute of Meteorological Sciences of Zhejiang, Hangzhou, 310021
    • Received Date: 1995-07-15
    • Rev Recd Date: 1995-11-24

    Abstract: In this paper, a statistical interpretation composite forecast model for typhoon track is set up by using numerical forecast products and several forecast schemes. Tested in 1994 typhoon season, its forecastperformance is much better than that of a previous statistical forecast model. The test shows that it is aneffective method that sufficiently Anproves objective forecast of typhoon track using the numerical forecast output products obtained in forecast and adopting several schemes in composition.

    Jin Yiming, Zhong Yuan. AN IMPROVEMENT OF STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF TYPHOON TRACKS [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1997, 3(2): 152-158.
    Citation: Jin Yiming, Zhong Yuan. AN IMPROVEMENT OF STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF TYPHOON TRACKS [J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1997, 3(2): 152-158.
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