[1] MANN M E, BRADLEY R S, HUGHES M K. Northern hemisphere temperatures during past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties and limitations [J]. Geophys. Res. Letts., 1999, 26: 759-762.
[2] BRADLEY R. 1000 years of climate change [J]. Science, 2000, 288: 1353-1354.
[3] JONES P D, OSBORN T J, BRIFFA K R. The evolution of climate over the last Millennium [J]. Science, 2001, 292: 662-667.
[4] WANG Shao-wu, XIE Zhi-hui, CAI Jing-ning, et al. Study on the changes of average global temperature during the last millenary [J]. Prog. Nat. Sci., 2002, 12 (11): 1145-1149.
[5] IPCC, Summary for Policymakers [M]// Climate 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, SOLOMON S D, QIN M. MANNING Z, et al., Cambridge; Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[6] HULME M, ZHAO Z C, JIANG T. Recent and future climate change in East Asia [J]. Int. J. Climatol., 1994, 14: 637-658.
[7] HU Z Z, YANG S, WU R. Long-term climate variations in China and global warming signals [J]. J. Geophys Res., 2003, 108 (D19): 4614, doi: 10.1029/2003JD003651.
[8] JIANG Da-bang, WANG Hui-jun, LANG Xian-mei. East Asian climate change trend under global warming background [J]. Chin. J. Geophysics, 2004: 47 (4): 580-596.
[9] JIANG Zhi-hong, ZHANG Xia, WANG Ji. Projection of climate change in China in the 21st century by IPCC-AR4 Models [J]. Geogr. Res., 2008 , 27(4): 787-799.
[10] SUN Ying, DING Yi-hui. Research on the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation and forecast the next hundred years [J]. Sci. China (D), 2009, 39 (11): 1487-1504.
[11] LI Qiao-ping, DING Yi-hui, DONG Wei-jie. Summer precipitation change over eastern China in future 30 years under SRES A2 scenario [J]. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci., 2008, 19(6): 770-780.
[12] LIU Xiao-dong, CHENG Zhi-gang, ZHANG Ran. The A1B scenario projection for climate change over the Tibetan Plateau in the next 30～50 years [J]. Plateau Meteor., 2009, 28(3): 475-484.
[13] KATO H, NISHIZAWA K, HIRAKUCHI H, et al. Performance of RegCM2.5/NCAR-CSM nested system for the simulation of climate change in East Asia caused by global warming [J]. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 2001, 79: 99-121.
[14] GAO Xue-jie, ZHAO Zong-ci, DING Yi-hui, et al. Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model part II: climate change [J]. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 2003: 61(1): 29-38.
[15] FRICH P, ALEXANDER L V, DELLA-MARTA P, et al. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century [J]. Clim. Res., 2002, 19: 193-212.
[16] KHARIN V V, FRANCIS W Z. Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations [J]. J. Climate, 2005, 18: 1156-1173.
[17] HUANG Rong-hui. Progresses in research on the formation mechanism and prediction theory of severe climatic disasters in China [J]. Adv. Earth Sci., 2006, 21 (6): 564-575.
[18] ALEXANDER L V, ZHANG X, PETERSON T C, et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation [J]. J. Geophys. Res., 2006, 111 (d5): D05109.
[19] XIE Zhi-qing, JIANG Ai-jun, DING Yu-guo, et al. Spatial-temporal features of annual extremes of heavy precipitation processes in the Yangtze River Delta [J]. J. Nanjing Inst. Meteor., 2005, 28 (2): 267-274.
[20] MIAO Juan, LIN Zhen-shan. Study on the characteristics of the precipitation of nine regions in China and their physical causes II―The relations between the precipitation and physical l causes [J]. J. Trop. Meteor., 2004, 20(1): 64-72.
[21] JIANG Zhi-hong, YANG Jin-hu, ZHANG Qiang. Influence study on spring Indian ocean SSTA to summer extreme precipitation events over the eastern part of Northwest China [J]. J. Trop. Meteor., 2009, 25 (6): 641-648.
[22] ZHAI Pan-mao, ZHANG Xue-bin, WAN Hui, et al. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China [J]. J. Climate, 2005, 18:1096-1108.
[23] HE Li, WU Yi-jin, DAN Chang-jun, et al. Impacts of global temperature changes in last century on drought and flood disasters in Yangtze River basin [J]. Chin. J. Agrometeor., 2007, 28 (4): 364-366.
[24] GAO Xue-jie, ZHAO Zong-ci, FILIPPO Giorgi. Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia [J]. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2002, 19: 927-942.
[25] ZHANG Yong, XU Yin-long, DONG Wen-jie, et al. A future climate scenario of regional changes in extreme climate events over China using the PRECIS climate model [J]. Geophys. Res. Letts., 2006, 33, L24702, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027229.
[26] GAO Xue-jie, XU Ying, ZHAO Zong-ci, et al. Impacts of horizontal resolution and topography on the numerical simulation of East Asian precipitation [J]. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 2006, 30(2): 185-192.
[27] KUSUNOKI S, YOSHIMURA J, YOSHIMURA H, et al. Change of Baiu rain band in global warming projection by an atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km grid size [J]. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 2006, 84: 581-611.
[28] MARIANA V, TONY C, TOM H, et al. CCSM3.0 User’s Guide [M]. Boulder: National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2004.
[29] KIEHL J, TRENBERTH K. Earth’s annual global mean energy budget [J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1997, 78: 197-206.
[30] PAL J S, GIORGI F, BI X Q, et al. The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Regional climate modeling for the developing world [J]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2007, 88(9): 1395-1409.
[31] KIEHL J, HACK J, BONAN G, et al. Description of the ncar community climate model (ccm3) [R]. Technical Report, Boulder: National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA), 1996.
[32] FRICH P, ALEXANDER L V, DELLA-MARTA P, et al. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century [J]. Climate Res., 2002, 19: 193-212.
[33] JIANG Zhi-hong, CHEN Wei-lin, SONG Jie, et al. Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models [J]. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 2009, 33(1): 109-120.
[34] ZHANG Tian-yu, WANG Yong, CHENG Bing-yan, et al. Projection of maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount in Chongqing for the 21st century [J]. Adv. Climate Change Res., 2009, 5(3): 139-144.
[35] ZHANG Tian-yu, FAN Li, CHENG Bing-yan, et al. Variation of extreme precipitation index (maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation totals) in the three gorges during 1961-2007 and scenario projections [J]. Chin. J. Agrometeor., 2010, 31(2): 176-182.
[36] LI Xin-zhou, MA Zhu-guo, LIU Xiao-dong. Inter-decadal characteristics of aridification over northern China in association with variations of the atmospheric circulation during the last fifty years [J]. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci., 2006, 30(2): 277-284.