Assessment and Future Scenario Estimation of Climate Carrying Capacity in the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration of Guangxi, China

To enhance urban resilience to climate change in the future, this study quantitatively assesses the climate carrying capacity of the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration (BGUA) in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from 2000 to 2020 and in a future projected study from 2021 to 2060. The data used includes real-time data from the National Meteorological Observatory, prediction data from the National Climate Center's global climate model BCC-CSM2-MR under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), and socio-economic development data. The assessment is conducted using four criteria dimensions: climate natural capacity (CNC), extreme climate event pressure (ECP), urban climate pressure (UCP), and urban coordinated development capacity (UCC). The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, there was a significant interannual fluctuation in the CNC and ECP in the BGUA. The UCP and the UCC showed an increasing trend, while the overall climate-carrying capacity of the BGUA showed a fluctuating decrease. It is estimated that the climate carrying capacity will exhibit a non-significant decreasing trend from 2021 to 2060, with the capacity in the period from 2021 to 2040 generally higher than that in the period from 2041 to 2060 and the SSP2-4.5 scenario higher than the SSP5-8.5 scenario overall. Currently and in the future, the climate-carrying capacity of the BGUA is primarily influenced by normal climate conditions and extreme events such as strong winds and temperature extremes. With the passage of time, climate instability will increase. Under the planned implementation of China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality pathway, the rate of increase in the capacity for coordinated urban development is expected to surpass the rate of increase in urban climate pressure. Industrial production and energy consumption are the main drivers of future urban climate pressure growth.